You hold 100 million USD in your hands and want to multiply it by 10 again to enter the 1 billion club. The success rate is approximately 20%. This probability sounds pretty good.

Assuming you already have 1 billion and aim for another 10x growth to reach 10 billion, the success rate remains around 15%. The larger the amount, the more stable the growth.

The problem lies here—currently, you only have 30 million, and a 3x increase would push you past the 100 million threshold. This time, the success rate plummets to 2%. It sounds like magic.

The harsh reality is this—climbing from the 10 million level to 100 million has a success rate of only 1-2%, with a淘汰率 close to 99%.

In simple terms, it's like passing the Gaokao to enter the 985 universities—it's not that you're not努力, but this level of difficulty is designed for a very small minority. The same rule applies in the crypto market: the smaller the capital scale, the exponentially harder it is to achieve growth multiples. During this small-to-medium stage, the mismatch between the number of participants and opportunities is the most severe.

This is not just a mathematical problem; it’s a true reflection of the survival game in the market.