2026-01-01 11:24:49

The latest CME Federal Reserve Watch data delivered a heavy blow to the market: the probability of a rate cut in January is only 16.1%, while the chance of holding rates steady is as high as 83.9%. What signals are hidden behind this shift? Should the market's optimistic expectations be adjusted?

From the data, it is clear that investors' enthusiasm for a rate cut cycle has significantly cooled. The Federal Reserve remains in an "hawkish pause" stance, with inflation pressure still the core consideration for decision-making. This also means that the high-interest-rate environment will need to continue for some time, and liquidity pressures are unlikely to ease in the short term.

This is no small matter for crypto assets. Risk assets tend to perform best under loose liquidity conditions. When central banks turn hawkish or keep policies unchanged, the market faces considerable tests. Historically, every key turning point in policy has often been accompanied by sharp market volatility—could this time be the same?

The question now facing investors has become more urgent. Is the bull market still brewing, or will the bear market make a comeback? Probably no one can give a definitive answer. At such a crossroads, blindly chasing gains or rushing to short carries hidden risks. The data is here, but market sentiment changes rapidly. The key is to reassess your holdings and strategies based on the current interest rate environment.

What do you think? Will the Federal Reserve really rely on procrastination to fight inflation? Can high interest rates truly suppress the market in the long term? These questions are worth deep reflection.

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NFTBlackHole

· 7h ago

The probability of rate cuts drops to 16.1%? Oh my, this time the Federal Reserve really isn't easing up Wait... about high interest rates suppressing the market, why do I feel like the crypto market doesn't buy into this at all... Every policy shift in history has caused upheaval, but this time it seems to have been digested in advance? The Federal Reserve just likes to scare people, but in the end, they still have to cut rates, there's no other way This round truly tests the resolve of holdings; remaining steadfast like a mountain is the way to go

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MultiSigFailMaster

· 7h ago

You're trying to play us again, with an 83.9% chance of doing nothing... This is clearly high interest rates that still require renewal. Wait, is the Federal Reserve trying to grind us to death? Nah, that's not right. This round looks pretty fierce; liquidity is about to dry up.

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MevTears

· 7h ago

83.9% chance of not moving... Now I really need to take a serious look at my positions This is the real start of a shakeout, the interest rate cut dream has awakened The Federal Reserve just loves to play this game, dragging it out without saying a word is the most uncomfortable Who dares to hold heavy positions in a high-interest-rate environment? The risk is too outrageous The bear market really might turn back a second time, gotta stay alert

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ConsensusBot

· 7h ago

Once again, the probability of rate cuts plummets. Are we really going to trust the Federal Reserve this time? I always feel like they are just bluffing. This is just teasing us, keeping interest rates high and steady. What should I do with my BTC? Wait, 83.9%... When was this data released? Could it reverse again? Poor liquidity, huh? Then why are people still buying like crazy? The logic doesn’t add up. The Fed’s hawkish pause is just a pause. Anyway, I think the market has its own reasons, and history might really repeat itself this time. Bull or bear, who can be sure? The key is how long it can hold up. In the short term, this data does feel a bit like cold water, but don’t be too pessimistic. Maybe this is a sign of the bottom? At the end of the day, it’s just one sentence: Whoever dares to go all-in is foolish, and whoever does nothing is also foolish. I just can’t believe this 16.1%. It feels like the market might still sneak in a rate cut at the last minute. High interest rates staying unchanged long-term? Then how long does the crypto market have to endure this? It’s really uncomfortable.

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GasBandit

· 8h ago

Coming back with this again? The probability of interest rate cuts is 16%... Damn, it's really gone. Wait, is there still a brewing bull market? I feel like it's just self-deception. Hawkish pause just means the pause can't last, it's just holding us back like this. Honestly, the Federal Reserve is just betting on time, seeing who gives in first. I've already adjusted my positions long ago, now it's just waiting to watch the show. How long can high interest rates really last... feels like forever.

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GigaBrainAnon

· 8h ago

Uh... it's the same old "Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady" script again, we're all tired of it, aren't we? Wait, why is it that every time high interest rates are demonized? I actually think this is a real screening period. The probability of rate cuts dropping from a crazy number to 16.1%—what does that mean... the market's daydreams are finally coming to an end. Frequent "crossroads" analysis is really annoying; either up or down, why make it so mysterious? Stay calm, everyone. High interest rates = cleaning out the leeks, that's the real truth, right?

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