#预测市场 The data changes in the predictive market are always the most intuitive barometer. Wash surged from 7% to 48%, and Haskett dropped from 85% to 42%, such reversals are enough to make people re-examine policy expectations.

The key lies in the fact that the appointment of the Federal Reserve Chair will directly influence the subsequent monetary policy direction, which has a substantial impact on market liquidity and risk asset pricing. Wash's "hawkish" characteristics align more with Trump's economic agenda, which perhaps explains why JPMorgan's Dimon publicly endorsed him.

For followers, such macro variable shifts often trigger large fund position adjustments. Recently, I have been observing several traders skilled at tracking policy signals—they began subtly adjusting their positions within 24 hours before the market probability reversal, demonstrating a level of acuity worth learning from.

If your followings include traders dealing with US Treasuries or USD-related assets, you may want to pay attention to their risk exposure adjustments over the past two weeks. Policy expectation revisions are often accompanied by high volatility. A prudent approach is to moderately reduce your following proportion based on your risk tolerance, rather than blindly following in full due to emotional influence.

The market never gives hesitant traders much time, but the cost of blindly chasing the trend is often even greater.