As soon as I saw a piece of news, it is estimated that many people skimmed it over - but the lethality of this matter may be more fierce than the thunderstorm of non-farm payroll and CPI data.

The U.S. Department of Labor directly officially announced: The PPI data for October will not be released.

Reason? The government is closed, the budget is broken, and data cannot be collected. It will not be replenished until January next year.

Sounds like a technical glitch, right?

But if you think about it, two details are weird:

First, in the United States, there have been only a handful of cases of "collective disappearance" of core inflation indicators over the years.
Second, it happens at this juncture - when the market is highly sensitive to the path of inflation, the data is suddenly gone.

Everyone was staring at the trend of inflation in the United States, and as a result, people suddenly said:

"I'm sorry, we lost our data this month."

This is not a technical problem, this is clearly a code for the market.

What does the absence of PPI mean? **

PPI is not the little brother of CPI.
It is an "inflation warning radar".

PPI rises→ corporate costs soar→ CPI will inevitably follow suit in the future
PPI falls→ enterprises are under great pressure to cut prices→ CPI will cool down in the future
PPI fluctuated sharply→ and the Fed immediately tensed up

Now, this most sensitive forward-looking data has suddenly disappeared.

The market will immediately fall into three soul tortures:

Has inflation fallen?
Are corporate costs rebounding?
Can the Fed accurately judge the timing of interest rate cuts?

Without hard data, the market can only rely on "guessing".
And "guessing" is the most likely thing to be led by emotions, left and right by the flow of funds, and biased by the direction of public opinion.

To put it bluntly: as soon as PPI data is absent, the market pricing mechanism begins