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Tonight at 9:30! The market welcomes the "data roller coaster", encryption + US stock direction will be set in stone 🚀
Three major economic data points from the United States have been released simultaneously, directly determining the short-term rise and fall logic of the US stock market and the encryption market!
1. September Retail Sales Month-on-Month Rate
• Expected +0.6% (Previous value +0.4%)
Key point: The "barometer" of American consumer vitality - the stronger the consumption, the stronger the inflation stickiness, and the harder it is for the Federal Reserve to ease interest rate cut expectations.
If the data exceeds expectations and "explodes", the market will directly price in "economic overheating → Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance", and risk assets may face pressure.
2. September PPI (Producer Price Index)
• Annual rate expectation 2.6% (previous value 2.7%)
• Monthly rate expectation -0.1% (previous value +0.3%)
Core logic: PPI is the "leading indicator upstream" of CPI, and the retreat of factory gate prices will directly alleviate price pressure on the consumer end.
If the monthly rate turns negative as scheduled, it will release a clear signal of "cooling inflation," and market bets on interest rate cuts are expected to warm up.
🔍 Three Major Core Scenario Predictions
1: Retail super strong + PPI stabilizes (inflation stubborn)
→ Strong economy + high inflation dual pressure, the most dreaded combination in the market
→ Risk assets are under pressure, and US stocks and encryption may face a correction.
2: Retail remains stable + PPI cools down (inflation eases)
→ Mild economy + declining inflation, perfect "soft landing" signal
→ The expectation of interest rate cuts is rising, and risk assets are likely to initiate a corrective rebound.
3: Dual data weakness (economic pressure)
→ Concerns about recession and bets on interest rate cuts intertwine, increasing market volatility.
→ Short-term volatility increases, need to be alert to emotional capital operations.
Core conclusion
The three sets of data at 9:30 tonight will directly anchor the core direction of the market for the coming week!
The Federal Reserve does not need to speak; the data has become the "best sounding board" for policy stance.
Buckle up, a new round of market trends is about to begin! #Gate广场圣诞送温暖