#美股2026展望 Recently, there are always people asking: "Are we at the tail end of a bull run or the beginning of a Bear Market?"

To be honest, I don't really care about this issue anymore.

After being tossed around by the market a few times, you'll realize - what good is it to judge the trend? Even if you get the direction right, if your position gets liquidated, it's still all for nothing.

I remember one deep night last year, the market suddenly plummeted. The circle of friends was in despair, and some people directly uninstalled the app.

I was staring at the candlestick chart.

It's not about predicting where the bottom is, but waiting for a signal: that kind of numbness where even panic sellers can't be bothered to sell, the "sense of dead silence."

Indeed, the rebound came much stronger than everyone expected.

I used 1/5 of my position to tentatively bottom fish, and in three days, I recovered all the losses from the previous two weeks. This operation made me realize one thing - the bottom is never calculated, it is endured.

There is another harsher lesson.

At that time, I liked to go all in, thinking that not going all in was a waste of opportunity. As a result, a pullback almost wiped out my account, and I stared at the liquidation price all night, my hands trembling.

Later, I forced myself to change this habit: small positions, low leverage, strict stop-loss.

At first, it was indeed uncomfortable, feeling like every time I made a profit, it wasn't enough. But the real turning point came during the next round of sharp decline — while others were liquidating their positions and cutting losses, my position remained steady as a rock, and I was even able to add to my holdings at lower prices.

At that moment, I understood: not being greedy is the true starting point for making money.

Looking back now, those days spent agonizing over the turning points of the bull and bear markets were simply a waste of life.

The market does not reward you for making the right judgment. It only cares about one thing: are you still alive?

As long as you are alive, you have a chance to wait for the next wave of dividends. Once you are liquidated, even the most accurate predictions are meaningless.

So if you are also feeling confused, remember this phrase:

Cycles will rotate, bulls and bears will alternate, but as long as the account is still there, you haven't lost.

Preserve the principal, control the risk, and leave the rest to time.