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$XRP is trading near $2.39, close to the 0.382 Fibonacci level seen in the recent swing low. The structure remains a falling wedge formation, which is typically bullish. However, momentum will only definitively turn positive once the price breaks above $2.88.
Upside: A confirmed close above $2.88 could open the way to $3.34, matching August resistance.
Neutral zone: Between $2.46 and $2.70, the price could move sideways as ETF speculation shifts to macro uncertainty.
Downside: A loss of $2.31 could create the risk of a prolonged squeeze toward the lower bound of the wedge, $2.06. This line has only two clear points of contact, making it more vulnerable to large declines.
The wedge naturally remains bullish, but stability won't return unless XRP reclaims $2.88 with real buying volume. If the market stagnation persists and the ETF automatically activates, it could closely monitor this breakout.
However, if the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) re-engages early, new comments could delay the launch, possibly triggering a short-term "sell the news" drop before a true rally develops.