The recent significant pullback and massive fluctuations in the market have once again put investors on edge. Behind the fierce battle between bulls and bears are the intertwined influences of two key factors: on one side is the upcoming Fed interest rate decision amidst the backdrop of a US government shutdown, and on the other side are the short-term unfavourable information signals released by the domestic Central Bank to combat virtual coin trading. The combination of multiple variables has made market trends full of uncertainty, which has also spawned various speculations and interpretations.

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At 2:00 AM today, the Fed will announce its latest interest rate decision, which is undoubtedly the "tuning fork" of the current global market. Before this, the weak employment data in the U.S. has set a loose expectation for the market, with most institutions predicting that this will be the Fed's second rate cut this year. For the cryptocurrency market, the impact of this decision is not simply a matter of "rate cuts up, rate hikes down"; the wording of Powell's speech and the implied signals in the decision are the core keys that determine the direction of liquidity. If the decision releases clear easing signals—whether it is an unexpected rate cut magnitude, a downward adjustment in the future interest rate path in the dot plot, or Powell using dovish phrases such as "economic downside risks are rising" and "will continue to support market liquidity" during his speech—it will reopen the liquidity floodgates for the cryptocurrency market. Historically, liquidity easing cycles are often accompanied by a valuation recovery of risky assets. Cryptocurrencies, as an asset class sensitive to liquidity, are likely to see a renewed influx of funds, thereby reversing the recent pullback trend. After the Fed's first rate cut in 2024, Bitcoin rose more than 15% in a short period, with mainstream cryptocurrencies also strengthening, and this historical performance has filled the market with expectations for easing signals. Conversely, if Powell continues a hawkish stance, emphasizing in the decision that "core inflation remains above target levels" and that "prematurely easing policy may trigger an inflation rebound," then the rebound sentiment that has just ignited in the market will be quickly extinguished. In this case, not only could the cryptocurrency market face further pullback pressure, but U.S. stocks, commodities, and other risky assets may also come under pressure, with funds flowing back to safe-haven assets like the dollar and government bonds, further intensifying market volatility.

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It is worth noting that this resolution was convened against the special background of a partial government shutdown in the United States. The government shutdown may lead to delays in the release of some economic data, which will increase the difficulty for the Fed to assess the economic situation and may also make the wording of the resolution more cautious. However, regardless of whether the final stance is towards easing or hawkishness, the general consensus in the market is that there will inevitably be significant fluctuations in the market before and after the announcement of the resolution, and the tug-of-war between bulls and bears will enter a heated stage. This massive market shock is not only a concentrated exposure of risks, but also conceals structural opportunities. For specific interpretations of the market, sector rotation logic, and positioning strategies, you can follow the Yi Bo evening live stream, where we will analyze market opportunities in depth in conjunction with the latest market dynamics and policy signals to help investors find the right direction amidst volatility.