The U.S. government shutdown has once again become a focal point, sparking interest in the Bitcoin market. Looking back at history, the impact of government shutdowns on Bitcoin exhibits an interesting pattern.

In October 2013, the U.S. government shutdown lasted for 16 days, and the price of Bitcoin rose instead of falling, increasing by 14% from $132 to $151. At that time, it was the early stage of the Bitcoin bull market, with strong market demand. The government shutdown was seen as a catalyst for distrust in the traditional financial system, driving funds towards alternative assets like Bitcoin. This trend continued until the end of the year, with the price of Bitcoin skyrocketing to $1,100, a total increase of 700%.

In comparison, the government shutdown from December 2018 to January 2019 (the longest in history, lasting 35 days) had a negative impact on Bitcoin prices. During this period, Bitcoin fell 6% from $3,802 to $3,575, with some data showing a decline of up to 10%. This drop occurred against the backdrop of a cryptocurrency bear market, where tightening market liquidity exacerbated the negative effects. Additionally, the delayed payment of federal employee salaries increased market risk aversion.

Overall, government shutdowns usually trigger Bitcoin price fluctuations of 5% to 15%. The short-term impact depends on the current market cycle and macroeconomic environment. However, in the long term, data shows that Bitcoin averages an increase of over 20% within 3 to 6 months after a shutdown.

This long-term positive impact may stem from several factors: firstly, the government shutdown highlights the advantages of Bitcoin as a decentralized asset, corroborating the saying that 'the government may close, but Bitcoin never stops.' Secondly, institutional investors may view Bitcoin as a hedge against political and fiscal uncertainty. Notably, during the threats of shutdowns in 2021 and 2023, the price of Bitcoin also rose from $27,000 to $34,000.

Currently, with the U.S. government facing another shutdown, the Bitcoin price is around $114,000, having dropped 3% to 5% due to market panic. However, the current market environment is more similar to the demand growth period of 2013 and the traditional strong fourth quarter, rather than the bear market of 2018. Therefore, while it may dip to the range of $100,000 to $108,000 in the short term, there is still potential for a rebound in the medium to long term.

However, investors also need to be aware of additional risks, such as the potential delays in the introduction of regulatory regulations like the crypto market structure bill due to government shutdowns, which may increase market uncertainty.

In summary, although short-term fluctuations are unavoidable, historical experience shows that government shutdowns often present buying opportunities for the Bitcoin market. The decentralized nature of Bitcoin becomes more valuable during such periods of political and economic uncertainty. Some analysts believe that this round of government shutdowns could even serve as a catalyst for the last major surge in Bitcoin. However, investors still need to carefully assess risks and weigh their own investment strategies.