The recovery of the crypto market is surprisingly due to a statement from Apple CEO Tim Cook?

Written by: Tuo Luo Finance

The quiet market suddenly welcomed a revival today.

Just this morning, Bitcoin recaptured the $110,000 mark, rising past $112,000, Ethereum returned above $4,100, and BNB showed strong performance, breaking through $1,000 once again. However, just three days ago, the crypto market experienced a flash crash, with Bitcoin dipping as low as $108,631, ETH falling below the $4,000 warning line, briefly plunging to $3,815, which led to ongoing market panic.

From the existing data, the reasons for the recovery seem quite interesting, likely stemming from a segment of an interview with Apple's CEO Tim Cook.

Yesterday noon, a segment of an interview with Cook went viral. In the interview, Cook was asked, "Do you hold cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ethereum? Would you try it?" His response was, "It’s reasonable for individuals to consider cryptocurrency as part of a diversified portfolio, by the way, this is not investment advice for anyone. I’ve been interested in crypto for a while and have been doing research. So, I think it’s quite interesting."

At one point, social media quickly interpreted this sentence as Apple supporting cryptocurrency, with some even believing that Apple might accept cryptocurrency for purchasing iPhones and Macs, and might emulate the treasury strategy by potentially investing company assets into Bitcoin. Of course, the previous sentence may have some relation. In May of this year, Apple updated its guidelines for the U.S. App Store, allowing applications to connect with external payment systems. At that time, this update was well-received by the crypto community, who believed that the move could save 30% in commissions for NFTs, wallets, and DeFi platforms. In June, a report from Fortune magazine indicated that Apple intends to enter the stablecoin market and is in preliminary talks with cryptocurrency companies regarding the integration of stablecoins. Overall, while Apple has not implemented a cryptocurrency strategy, it has not resisted this emerging phenomenon either.

But the latter statement is purely nonsense. Firstly, Cook clearly stated in the interview that it is reasonable for individuals to hold cryptocurrencies for portfolio diversification, but he does not intend to invest Apple's $200 billion cash into Bitcoin or other crypto assets. He also emphasized, "I don't think people will buy Apple stock to gain exposure to the risks of cryptocurrencies, and Apple will (temporarily) not accept cryptocurrency as a payment method when selling products." More importantly, this interview, which has been regarded by multiple media outlets as recent, is actually from 2021 when Cook was interviewed at The New York Times DealBook Online Summit. In other words, this video is already a "reheated dish" from four years ago, but some media mistakenly believe it to be a new interview. Moreover, Cook did not directly indicate which type of cryptocurrency he holds; the market merely expects that he should hold Bitcoin.

Although it's old news, it has been hyped up under media influence. Today, the previously dormant cryptocurrency market has been awakened again, with Bitcoin returning to above $110,000, currently reported at $111,600. The altcoin market, led by ETH, has also seen some recovery, with ETH currently reported at $4,105. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has risen to $3.85 trillion, and the fear index has increased from 28 to 39. While attributing this correctly is difficult, it seems that Cook's statement has indeed had a somewhat positive impact on the market.

In fact, generally speaking, September has always been a sluggish month for cryptocurrencies. Since its inception in 2010, Bitcoin has averaged a decline of over 4.5% in September, making it one of the only two months with negative average returns for Bitcoin. This year seems to be no exception. Despite the Federal Reserve finally resuming interest rate cuts after a year, successfully lowering the rate by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, the market, accustomed to selling news, experienced even more intense fluctuations. After the rate cut announcement on the 18th, the cryptocurrency market plummeted on the 22nd, with a single-day liquidation amount reaching as high as $1.7 billion, setting the largest liquidation record since December 2024.

In addition to the pullback after the news landed, the frequency of interest rate cuts and recession have once again returned to the center of the game. According to the dot plot released on September 18, there will be two more rate cuts within 2025. On the 22nd, Federal Reserve's Bostic stated that it makes no sense to continue cutting rates, and this year there may only be one rate cut. Meanwhile, Powell once again played hide-and-seek with the market, avoiding the number of rate cuts in his speech, which has led to doubts about the market's perception of his stance.

More importantly, the recession data. As of August 2025, the U.S. labor market remains weak, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021; non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs in August, far below expectations, and the average new jobs added over the past three months is only 29,000. Historical data has been significantly revised downward, with a reduction of 911,000 jobs for 2024-2025, marking the largest revision in twenty years. The unemployment rate and employment rate are both declining, triggering a recession alert in the market. UBS even published data stating that the probability of an economic recession occurring in the U.S. is 93%.

The inflation data is not looking good either. The latest data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on the 26th shows that the U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index in August rose by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly higher than the 2.6% increase in July. Excluding the volatile food and energy prices, the core personal consumption expenditures price index in August rose by 2.9% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month's increase. Both figures are above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target, presenting new challenges for the Fed's policy formulation. Notably, Trump's previous tariff policies have not yet fully transmitted to the economic data side, leading to more uncertainty in the inflation data.

Against this backdrop, since the interest rate cut, the cryptocurrency market has entered a garbage time. Institutions have instead taken the lead in chasing rises and falls, with significant ETF outflows since the 22nd. Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of $1.143 billion within 5 days, while Ethereum (ETH) experienced continuous net outflows for 5 days, amounting to $795 million.

In terms of ideals, although market expectations for a U.S. recession are on the rise, the probability of a recession may not be as high as imagined given the current state. It has been previously mentioned that the U.S. economy is quite resilient, primarily reflected in the following points: first, there is strong support from healthy household balance sheets, with relatively low leverage ratios for businesses and households, currently in a private sector balance sheet expansion cycle; second, there is investment driven by infrastructure projects and we are in a technology innovation cycle led by AI; third, the initiation of a rate-cutting cycle, after several years of tightening, provides the Federal Reserve with considerable maneuvering space, with a rate-cutting potential of up to 400 basis points, also offering soft protection for asset prices. Recently, the CME "Fed Watch" indicates an 89.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in October, while the probability of maintaining rates is 10.7%. In summary, the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are more robust than previously expected, with a basis for forming an upward cycle. Even from the data perspective, it is still too early to discuss a recession; both unemployment and inflation have not yet reached fully alarming levels.

Perhaps it is precisely based on this that although the prices in the crypto market have declined, the overall performance remains robust. Especially Bitcoin, which remains priced in the range of $105,000 to $110,000, with effective support. At the same time, the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges has steadily decreased, currently standing at only 2.126 million coins, hitting a new low in nearly two years, reflecting the long-term holding tendency of holders. Overall, although there is insufficient upward momentum, there has also been no significant bearish news for the time being.

Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum has even greater issues. There has been ongoing disagreement in the market regarding Ethereum's price trends. Recently, Andrew Kang, the founder of the crypto venture capital firm Mechanism Capital, and Tom Lee, the CEO of Bitmine, the largest holder of ETH, engaged in a debate over Ethereum's price. In response to the five major visions for Ethereum proposed by spokesperson Tom Lee, Andrew Kang countered one by one, stating that the existence of stablecoin chains and the low liquidity of RWA make it difficult for stablecoins and RWA to bring sustained income to Ethereum. He also argued that institutional buying and staking are merely empty talk, as no major bank or asset management institution has announced plans to include ETH on their balance sheets. Furthermore, he questioned Ethereum's positioning, suggesting that ETH is merely a cyclical asset with no logical support for sustained long-term valuation increases, and he refuted the notion of Ethereum as a global financial infrastructure.

Andrew Kang's assertion is merely a personal opinion and should not be taken at face value, as he previously claimed that ETH would drop below $1,000 back in April this year. Though his words may seem light, they reflect a deeper layer of market distrust towards Ethereum. This distrust has a long history; a price that remained stable for several years now struggles to create ripples in the application market. Even the much-touted Ethereum treasury has recently been doused with cold water due to the joint investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (Finra) into treasury enterprises. Each incident has contributed to a decline in investor confidence regarding Ethereum's price. This has led to the objective reality that any slight negative news usually results in a greater decline and more intense volatility for Ethereum. It is worth mentioning that the current queue for ETH staking withdrawals has reached an astonishing 2.13 million ETH, indicating immense withdrawal pressure.

Of course, although there is pressure on the price, being bearish on Ethereum should still be approached with caution. After all, it is still the most important cryptocurrency in the market besides Bitcoin and is one of the two cryptocurrencies that institutions are willing to hold heavily. However, considering its volatility and the current fundamentals, operations should be more cautious than with BTC.

From the market perspective, the possible short-term bearish sentiment is related to the upcoming TOKEN 2049 in October, with a focus on whether the "summit must fall" curse will reappear. The new U.S. labor data and the Federal Reserve's movements also require close attention, as they will have a more profound impact on the market. Good news is on the way as well; the next few weeks will be a concentrated approval period for altcoin ETFs, which is also the final deadline, and the market predicts that the SEC will approve at least one type of ETF.