On Saturday, the weekend failed to break the trend, and Bitcoin rose again to around 112,000 over the weekend. Short-term fluctuations and Whipsaw have begun again, while the medium to long-term outlook remains firmly bearish; I firmly believe that the upward space is not large.

This week's weekly K-line ended quite well, with a low at 108500 and a closing shadow at 112119 with a long lower shadow. From the daily line perspective, there is a clear fluctuation with pressure above 109000-114000, and the pressure is still at 114000. Looking at the 12-hour chart, the mid-track at 112300 is under pressure and has started to pull back. The extent of the pullback is currently unknown. To be honest, I'm not too worried about a crazy surge like before; I'm just worried about not being on board when a black swan occurs. It didn't break down over the weekend, so we’ll see if it can break down when looking at the monthly line to trigger a big move.
This Thursday and Friday happen to coincide with the National Day holiday, bringing some news. On Thursday, there will be unemployment claims which are not too concerning, and on Friday, the non-farm payroll data is coming. It has been mentioned before that the non-farm payroll data has been revised the most since last year, and it tends to be quite tricky. The non-farm payroll data released on July 3rd and August 1st was relatively strong, but the August non-farm payroll data released on September 5th was instantly weak, combined with the interest rate cut hype, leading to a small rise in Bitcoin. The previous value for Friday's non-farm payroll data is 2.2, with expectations set at 5. It is estimated that the previous value will be revised higher than 2.2, and the release will be above 5, setting up for a perfect major bearish signal.
Looking at intraday, it can be shorted in batches or wait for around 113000 to short, with defense placed at 114200. This year's market is indeed not easy for short-term trading, with no pressure support. Many times it's just about aiming for liquidation breakthroughs or pinning before returning. Taking losses often results in white losses or losses at the lowest or highest points, which is quite unfortunate. Not taking losses has become a habit; once a strong one-sided market appears, it will ultimately take you out in one go. This is what I previously said about trading being a test of human nature. The world is changing, and we also need to slowly adapt, try to accept and change, otherwise we will ultimately be eliminated.