Crash of 2025: Why the US stock market will fall by 32% and who benefits from it

I recently came across a forecast by Peter Berezin. Oh these analysts from BCA Research – they always scare us with their catastrophic scenarios! But you know, this forecast caught my attention. Maybe because I've been waiting for this bubble in the American market to burst for a long time.

Berezina claims that the S&P 500 will collapse by 32% to 3750 points. Don't believe it? Well, I think it's not enough! After such artificial pumping of the market by central banks, the fall should be much deeper.

While everyone believes in the fairy tale of a "soft landing," Berezin is telling the truth – the recession is already at the door. And the Fed, as usual, will be late to react. They always do this – first they create a problem, then they pretend to save the economy.

I see that the situation in the US labor market is already worsening. The number of job openings is falling, people are afraid to quit their jobs. Unemployment has risen to 4.1%. And what are frightened consumers doing? That's right, they stop spending and start saving. And here you have a vicious circle – less spending, less profit for companies, more layoffs, even less spending.

And the Fed? What are they going to do? They will lower the rate, but what’s the point? The average mortgage rate will still remain around 7%, when people are used to 4%. The banking sector will crack again – the problems of regional banks haven’t gone anywhere.

The funniest thing is that there is currently euphoria in the market surrounding the stocks of tech giants and AI. People have forgotten the lessons of the dot-com bubble! Berezin correctly draws a parallel between the current hype around AI and the early days of the internet. How many years did it take for companies to start making money from technological innovations?

What does Berezin advise? To move into defensive sectors – utilities, consumer goods, healthcare. Especially in healthcare – the aging population is not going anywhere.

And the cherry on the cake is the comparison of China with Japan in the 90s. Growing debt, real estate market collapse... China is more likely to face deflation than inflation. And this will hit the global economy.

Personally, I am already reducing my shareholding and increasing my positions in long-term bonds. But the main thing is to stay away from trading platforms where you will be stripped bare at the first serious market movement.