#美联储官员集体表态 According to the latest 4-hour Candlestick data analysis on September 28, Ethereum ( ETH ) is at a critical decision point in the technical aspect, showing a clear directional choice window.

From the price pattern perspective, Ethereum is currently priced at 4,023.90 USDT, hovering around the middle band of the Bollinger Bands (4,001.42). The intraday trading range remains between 3,970.75 and 4,037.75, reflecting a fierce struggle between bullish and bearish forces. The moving average system shows a local adhesion state. Although the ETH price is above the EMA5, it has not yet broken through the EMA10 and EMA30. This technical pattern indicates that the short-term trend has not established a clear direction.

There are notable signals in the momentum indicators. The MACD indicator shows that both the DIF and DEA are negative, but the histogram has turned positive (19.03), forming a potential bottom divergence signal, which suggests that bearish strength may be weakening and the market could be facing a technical rebound. However, the current trading volume is only 49,800 ETH, significantly lower than the recent average volume level, indicating insufficient market participation and a cautious wait-and-see sentiment among investors.

The macro environment continues to exert pressure on ETH. Factors such as the expectation of the Federal Reserve delaying interest rate cuts, escalating tensions in the Middle East, and the stagnation of the SEC's approval process for Ethereum spot ETFs have collectively suppressed the activity in the crypto market. On-chain data also confirms the market's weakness, manifested in the slowing growth of Ethereum 2.0 staking and a decrease in holdings among large addresses.

In the short term, the most likely trend for Ethereum is to oscillate within the range of 3,862-4,074, waiting for key macro data or policy signals. Investors need to pay close attention to two price levels: if ETH can break through 4,074(EMA30) with increased volume and hold above it, it may trigger a rebound towards the upper Bollinger Band at 4,140; conversely, if it falls below the lower Bollinger Band at 3,862, it may further probe the range of 3,700-3,600.

For investors, a cautious strategy is advisable at the current stage. Holders are recommended to set stop-loss points below the 3,862 support level to avoid deep retracement risks; meanwhile, those without positions should refrain from chasing price increases or decreases and may consider entering the market only after price confirms a breakthrough of key resistance levels or clear turning signals appear in macroeconomic indicators. It is also essential to closely monitor the release of U.S. economic data, speeches from Federal Reserve officials, movements of whale addresses, and capital flow in exchanges to grasp market direction.

In the current market environment filled with uncertainty, Ethereum is undergoing a dual test of technical and fundamental aspects. Investors need to maintain rationality, control their positions, and wait for clearer directional signals to emerge.