It's okay.

The most commented on topic right now is how to watch tonight.

To be honest, what I can see is that a 25 basis point rate cut is basically certain, and a 50 basis point cut is not as appropriate or suitable at this time, nor does it align with Mr. Powell's "style".

The 50 basis point rate cut at this time means that Powell has to take the blame, as the market and Trump believe that the rate cut is "too late."

But the focus tonight is not on the rate cut in September, which is basically expected by the market; the focus is on the dot plot.

Currently, the dot plot is really hard to predict. Among the members of the Federal Reserve's FOMC, although the Trump camp has +1, Cook is also back, and the two are in conflict, which may lead to intense debates on future interest rate cuts.

So, the interest rate cut in Q4 2025 is either 50BP or 75BP, and I cannot anticipate it at the moment. Additionally, how the interest rate cuts will progress in 2026 is also a key concern for the market.

In the previous text, I interpreted several possible situations, feel free to take a look if you're interested.

In simple terms, a 50 basis point rate cut in Q4 and the start of a rapid rate cut path in 2026 are both positive. A 75 basis point rate cut in Q4 and the start of a rapid rate cut path in 2026 are even more positive.

Conversely, the limited interest rate cuts in Q4 and the restricted rate cut magnitude in 2026 are both blows to market confidence. If the dot plot shows this kind of performance and it is confirmed that there will be a 25BP rate cut in September, then a "Sell the news" scenario may occur. #BTC #ETH