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Recently, I have been thinking about a thought-provoking question that I would like to share my insights on with everyone. This question involves three main aspects: the complexity of market participation, the role of mainstream investors, and a comparison with other Capital Markets.
After in-depth analysis, I've concluded that while there are still opportunities in the cryptocurrency market, these opportunities are disappearing at a visibly rapid pace. Young investors need to realize that the time window to seize this market is rapidly closing.
First of all, from a trading perspective, market participation has become increasingly challenging. Over the past year, I have observed an unprecedented 'nodding' trend in Bitcoin. Even more surprisingly, there was a sideways consolidation lasting up to 7 months during the upward trend, which has never happened in Bitcoin's history. This new type of trend has significantly increased the difficulty of trend trading. If we look back at every wave of Bitcoin's rise from 2013 to 2021, we will find that the current market environment is much more complex compared to the past.
Some may suggest turning to grid trading or oscillation strategies. However, based on data from the past decade, Bitcoin has consistently been an ideal asset for trend trading, which contradicts the characteristics suitable for oscillation trading.
Secondly, the 'main force' in the market is changing. The approval of Bitcoin ETFs is a clear signal indicating that institutional investors are entering this field. This shift may bring more capital inflow, but it also means that the way the market operates may undergo fundamental changes.
Finally, if we compare the cryptocurrency market with traditional Capital Markets, we can see some interesting trends. While the cryptocurrency market still has high volatility and potential high returns, it is gradually maturing, which may reduce the chances of extreme fluctuations and super high returns.
Overall, the cryptocurrency market is at a critical turning point. While opportunities still exist, the complexity of the market and the difficulty of participation are both increasing. For young investors, this may be the last opportunity window to find their place in this rapidly changing market. Whether choosing to actively participate or to cautiously observe, understanding these market dynamics is essential.