The performance of the Bitcoin (BTC) market has been remarkable recently. Over the past 6 months, the strategy of the first week of each month has shown astonishing stability, performing effectively for 5 months. However, investors should remain cautious and not follow blindly.
The current market environment is highly volatile, especially around the release of non-farm data. Market sentiment changes rapidly, swinging from the pessimistic "the bull market is over" to the optimistic "breaking $150,000 next month," with such a large divergence being astonishing. This divergence may extend the adjustment period and delay the formation of a clear direction.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's closing price last week fell below the key level of $109,000, which is the last weekly resistance before the historical high. This could be seen as the first step towards a potential bearish signal. However, a true bearish confirmation would require a retest of that resistance level followed by a rejection, along with subsequent sustained downward movement. Currently, we are only at the initial stage of this process.
Monthly trends typically test the lows in the first 6-7 days. Considering the strong consensus last month, the $112,000 level was tested twice, and this month, given the increasing divergence, the possibility of retesting the lows cannot be ignored. Statistics show that the probability of the monthly lows forming in the first 6 days is about 50%, rising to 80% by the 12th day, and reaching 100% by the 15th day. Highs that occur after the 15th are often seen as the monthly top.
On the Ethereum side, a small position was established at $4,223, and a reduction in position was made near $4,450. There will be another opportunity to reassess the position this month.
In the face of such a complex market environment, investors should remain patient and carefully observe market fluctuations. Decisions should not be made based on feelings or blind impulses. Pay close attention to the impact of non-farm employment data, as well as the direction of the market over the weekend. During this period of uncertainty, it may be wise to wait cautiously.
Remember, the market is always giving birth to opportunities amidst fluctuations. The key is to stay calm, observe the big picture, and seize the moment. Only after fully understanding market dynamics can you make informed investment decisions.
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
The performance of the Bitcoin (BTC) market has been remarkable recently. Over the past 6 months, the strategy of the first week of each month has shown astonishing stability, performing effectively for 5 months. However, investors should remain cautious and not follow blindly.
The current market environment is highly volatile, especially around the release of non-farm data. Market sentiment changes rapidly, swinging from the pessimistic "the bull market is over" to the optimistic "breaking $150,000 next month," with such a large divergence being astonishing. This divergence may extend the adjustment period and delay the formation of a clear direction.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's closing price last week fell below the key level of $109,000, which is the last weekly resistance before the historical high. This could be seen as the first step towards a potential bearish signal. However, a true bearish confirmation would require a retest of that resistance level followed by a rejection, along with subsequent sustained downward movement. Currently, we are only at the initial stage of this process.
Monthly trends typically test the lows in the first 6-7 days. Considering the strong consensus last month, the $112,000 level was tested twice, and this month, given the increasing divergence, the possibility of retesting the lows cannot be ignored. Statistics show that the probability of the monthly lows forming in the first 6 days is about 50%, rising to 80% by the 12th day, and reaching 100% by the 15th day. Highs that occur after the 15th are often seen as the monthly top.
On the Ethereum side, a small position was established at $4,223, and a reduction in position was made near $4,450. There will be another opportunity to reassess the position this month.
In the face of such a complex market environment, investors should remain patient and carefully observe market fluctuations. Decisions should not be made based on feelings or blind impulses. Pay close attention to the impact of non-farm employment data, as well as the direction of the market over the weekend. During this period of uncertainty, it may be wise to wait cautiously.
Remember, the market is always giving birth to opportunities amidst fluctuations. The key is to stay calm, observe the big picture, and seize the moment. Only after fully understanding market dynamics can you make informed investment decisions.