The date for a possible rate cut by the Fed is getting closer, but the yields on long-term government bonds are showing a rise, a phenomenon that has drawn widespread attention from the market. Recently, a latest market report released by a financial analysis agency indicated that the Fed is expected to cut rates for the first time in 15 days; however, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond has already approached the high level of 5.00%.

This contradictory phenomenon reflects the market's complex view of the U.S. economic outlook. Although the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points on September 17 is as high as 90%, and the market expects a cumulative rate cut of up to 75 basis points by 2025, the rise in long-term bond yields seems to run counter to this expectation.

It is noteworthy that the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond has risen to 5%, a level comparable to that during the 2008 financial crisis. This situation may be related to the continuously expanding fiscal deficit in the United States. It is reported that the U.S. government has issued over $200 billion in bonds in just five weeks, a move that may have led to a decline in investor confidence in long-term bonds.

Another indicator worth following is the "term premium" of the 10-year government bond. This indicator reflects the extra yield that investors require for holding long-term bonds, and it is currently close to its highest level since 2014. This suggests that investors' perception of the risks associated with holding U.S. government bonds for the long term is on the rise.

At the same time, the core inflation rate in the United States has climbed back above 3% and is showing a rising trend. This change in inflation data may affect the Fed's future monetary policy decisions.

In the face of these complex economic indicators, investors and policymakers need to closely follow future market trends. Whether the Fed can find a balance between cutting interest rates and controlling inflation will be a focal topic in the financial markets for some time to come.