Bitcoin and gold "very negative breakthrough"! 5 key risks and opportunities you must know this week.

Bitcoin has just ended its weakest month of the year, with prices hitting a two-month low and market sentiment tense; meanwhile, gold has broken historical highs, creating a stark contrast. Analysts warn that this is a "very negative breakout," and this week investors need to closely follow 5 key factors—from price technical positions and macroeconomic data to institutional fund flows and seasonal trends.

BTC Technical Analysis: Dual Pressure from New Lows and Psychological Barriers

(Source: Trading View)

Latest low: $107,270 (local new low this year)

Short-term rebound: rising to around $110,000, but trading volume is sluggish.

Trader's Perspective:

Some people are waiting for a clearer bottom, even expecting a retest of the psychological level of 100,000 dollars.

CrypNuevo points out that if it falls below 100,000 USD, it may trigger a large number of stop losses, further dropping to 94,000 USD to fill the gap below CME.

Resistance above: A large number of short liquidation points exist in the range of 112,000–115,000 US dollars.

Technical conclusion: The short-term volatility range is expanding, with $100,000 becoming a key defense level.

Macroeconomic Risks: Tariff Disputes and U.S. Employment Data

Background: After the US Labor Day holiday, the market will digest the impact of the Trump tariff dispute.

Court ruling: Trump overstepped authority in some tariff decisions, agreement falls into uncertainty.

This week's focus:

U.S. unemployment claims data (the last labor market report before the September FOMC)

The market expects a probability of over 90% for a 0.25% rate cut on September 17 (CME FedWatch)

Macro conclusion: If the data is weak + interest rate cuts materialize, it may temporarily benefit risk assets, but inflation pressures remain a hidden concern.

Gold Breakthrough and Bitcoin Decoupling

Gold price hits new high: $3,489/oz (approaching historical peak)

Historical comparison: On the day gold reached a new high in early 2025, BTC rose by 6.7%; this time it has declined.

Peter Schiff's view: The breakout of gold and silver is "very unfavorable" for BTC.

Historical Rule: 100–150 days after gold reaches a new high, BTC often experiences a rebound (validated after the pandemic in 2020)

Asset conclusion: short-term decoupling, but there may be opportunities for a price increase in the medium term.

Institutional Fund Flow: ETF Net Outflow and Demand Cooling

August ETF fund outflow: $750 million (the second largest monthly outflow in history)

Last Friday: Net outflow of 126.7 million USD from the US spot BTC ETF.

Capriole data: Institutional purchases have dropped to the lowest level since early April, but are still at 200% of the daily newly produced BTC.

Trend: Price decline + ETF outflow, indicating an increase in institutional short-term wait-and-see sentiment.

Funding conclusion: Institutional demand remains higher than supply, but short-term capital flow is weak, which may suppress the rebound strength.

Seasonal Pressure: September is the weakest month for BTC

Historical Data:

Average Return Rate: -3.5%

The best return in the past 12 years was only +7.3%

Features of 2025:

The first appearance of "Red August" (-6.5%) after the halving.

Investor Mark Harvey believes that institutional influence has caused BTC to no longer strictly follow the four-year halving cycle.

Seasonal conclusion: September historically tends to be weak, and we need to guard against increased volatility.

Investor Action Guide This Week

Short-term Strategy

Key support: $100,000

Key resistance: $112,000–$115,000

Observation points: US employment data, changes in FOMC rate cut expectations

Mid-term Strategy

If gold continues to rise, pay attention to the potential rebound window for BTC in 100–150 days.

The warming of ETF capital flow will be an important signal for a rebound.

Risk Warning

Macroeconomic policy changes (tariffs, interest rates)

Institutional funds continue to flow out

Seasonal weakness and technical levels breached

Conclusion

The "very negative breakthrough" of Bitcoin and gold highlights the divergence in market sentiment: gold continues to be favored as a safe-haven asset, while Bitcoin is under pressure in the short term and is decoupling and weakening. This week's trend will be determined by three main factors: macro data + technical breakout + institutional capital flows. Investors need to cautiously seek a balance between the psychological defense line of 100,000 USD and the seasonal low in September for entry and risk hedging.