Labubu and Moutai: A Comparison of New and Old Social Currencies
Recently, a financial institution released a report comparing emerging trendy toy IPs with traditional liquor giants, attempting to explore whether there is a reenactment of the consumption cycle or a profound paradigm shift behind it.
Analysts point out that although both have the attributes of social currency, the social characteristics of emerging IP are more based on the common interests and values of the younger demographic, while the social function of traditional baijiu relies more on power and hierarchical relationships. This difference reflects the essential distinction between "new consumption" and "traditional consumption."
The report mentions that emerging IP companies are also facing dual challenges brought by the IP cycle and investment attributes. If there is a long gap between the current blockbuster IP and the next one, the company's global growth may slow down.
In addition, investors need to pay attention to two major risks: regulation and market crowding. The current phenomenon of capital concentrating on the "new consumption" sector is quite similar to the previous trend of funds clustering around traditional consumption blue-chip stocks; the fragility of such crowded trading may have a significant impact on valuations.
!7378492
Intergenerational Differences in Social Currency
The research team believes that although emerging IP and traditional Baijiu both possess social currency attributes, there are significant generational differences. The social function of traditional Baijiu is more reflected as a productivity tool acting as a "social/business lubricant," while emerging IP represents the younger generation's pursuit of emotional value, providing consumers with instant, nuanced, and affordable "dopamine" experiences in the era of digital social media.
Analysts point out that in a digital world where consumers face "meaninglessness" and increasing pressure, emerging IP suggests that China is gradually shifting from an investment-driven model to a consumption-driven model. Traditional liquor is deeply rooted in Chinese traditional culture, and its globalization process is still in the early stages, while emerging IP, which is highly in tune with the global zeitgeist, has already achieved significant global success.
Social attribute differences: The social attributes of traditional liquor rely more on power and hierarchical systems, primarily serving business occasions; emerging IPs represent the younger generation's social interactions based on interests and values, emphasizing emotional value and instant gratification.
Consumption Motivation: Traditional liquor can serve as a "productivity tool" (business lubricant), while emerging IP meets the pursuit of emotional value and "dopamine" style consumption among young people in a digital social environment, reflecting China's trend of transition from investment-driven to consumption-driven.
Globalization process: Traditional Baijiu is deeply rooted in Chinese traditional culture and is still in the early stages of globalization; emerging IPs have already achieved significant success worldwide, aligning with global trends.
The Double-edged Sword of IP Cycle Risks and Investment Attributes
While experiencing rapid growth, analysts have also pointed out the similar challenges faced by emerging IP companies and traditional liquor enterprises, namely the dual test brought by the IP lifecycle and product investment attributes.
Analysts believe that whether the net profit of emerging IP companies in 2025 is 8 billion yuan or 10 billion yuan is not important, as it depends on the shipping speed of blockbuster products. Instead, what matters is how to balance recent growth and the IP lifecycle.
IP lifecycle risk: Traditional liquor with a hundred years of history and official endorsement has proven its ability to withstand cycles. In contrast, the history of emerging IP companies and their representative products is only 15 years and 10 years, respectively, making the IP lifecycle a core risk.
The report suggests that as an IP platform, the diversified IP portfolio of emerging IP companies can mitigate risks, but their representative products are crucial for global success. If there is a prolonged gap between the representative product and the next blockbuster IP, their global growth may slow down. Furthermore, the "mainstreaming" of subcultures, while driving growth, may also dilute the unique social identity of the representative products, thereby alienating their core consumer base.
The pros and cons of investment properties: The history of traditional Chinese liquor indicates that "investability" is a double-edged sword; it acts as a booster during upward cycles and becomes an amplifier during downward cycles.
The report notes that emerging IP companies are actively managing the second-hand market prices to ensure their appeal to young consumers and to create a favorable environment for the launch of new IPs and products. Recently, the decline in second-hand prices of its representative product, the plush toy series, has been seen as a result of the company's proactive management of supply and demand dynamics.
Unignorable Regulation and Market Congestion
The report emphasizes that regulation and market sentiment are two other risk factors that investors must face.
Regulatory Risks: Traditional liquor has always been influenced by price controls and anti-corruption campaigns. Similarly, emerging IP companies are not in a regulatory vacuum. A recent article from a reputable media outlet has warned about market-related risks. However, analysts believe that as the consumer base of emerging IP companies becomes increasingly diversified, "mainstreaming" reduces their exposure to minors in the Chinese market. At the same time, the growing overseas business (expected to contribute more than half of sales by 2025) also helps hedge against regulatory risks in a single market. However, this risk may still negatively impact the company's fundamentals or trigger "headline noise" that leads to stock price volatility.
The vulnerability of "herd" trading: every cycle in the capital market may experience dominant "crowded trades". The influx of funds into consumer blue chips represented by traditional liquor from 2016 to 2021 is quite similar to the current concentration of funds in the "new consumption" track focused on emerging IP companies. Changes in capital flow and positions can have a huge impact on valuations— the forward price-to-earnings ratio of traditional liquor was close to 60 times in early 2021, while it is currently only 18-19 times. Although recent changes in capital flows have put some pressure on "new consumption" stocks like emerging IP companies, the report suggests that this "crowded" situation may persist for a while in the context of the scarcity of high-quality investment targets. The real turning point may only come when meaningful inflection points appear in high-frequency data from overseas markets or when a strong recovery of the Chinese economy provides investors with more choices.
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FlatTax
· 09-03 22:41
It would be better for me to drink milk tea directly than baijiu.
View OriginalReply0
AirdropNinja
· 09-03 18:29
Isn't it just someone who loves to drink and someone who loves to play with dolls?
View OriginalReply0
SorryRugPulled
· 09-01 02:51
The feeling of disconnection is quite real.
View OriginalReply0
FarmHopper
· 09-01 02:50
Maoyi can't keep up with the social currency of contemporary people.
View OriginalReply0
AllInAlice
· 09-01 02:43
Does anyone really think that Moutai can't win against plush toys?
View OriginalReply0
MidnightSnapHunter
· 09-01 02:42
Not enough social death yet? Less talk, step back.
View OriginalReply0
LowCapGemHunter
· 09-01 02:39
Suckers have all entered the circle, dying quickly.
Labubu vs. Moutai: The Value and Risks of New and Old Social Currencies
Labubu and Moutai: A Comparison of New and Old Social Currencies
Recently, a financial institution released a report comparing emerging trendy toy IPs with traditional liquor giants, attempting to explore whether there is a reenactment of the consumption cycle or a profound paradigm shift behind it.
Analysts point out that although both have the attributes of social currency, the social characteristics of emerging IP are more based on the common interests and values of the younger demographic, while the social function of traditional baijiu relies more on power and hierarchical relationships. This difference reflects the essential distinction between "new consumption" and "traditional consumption."
The report mentions that emerging IP companies are also facing dual challenges brought by the IP cycle and investment attributes. If there is a long gap between the current blockbuster IP and the next one, the company's global growth may slow down.
In addition, investors need to pay attention to two major risks: regulation and market crowding. The current phenomenon of capital concentrating on the "new consumption" sector is quite similar to the previous trend of funds clustering around traditional consumption blue-chip stocks; the fragility of such crowded trading may have a significant impact on valuations.
!7378492
Intergenerational Differences in Social Currency
The research team believes that although emerging IP and traditional Baijiu both possess social currency attributes, there are significant generational differences. The social function of traditional Baijiu is more reflected as a productivity tool acting as a "social/business lubricant," while emerging IP represents the younger generation's pursuit of emotional value, providing consumers with instant, nuanced, and affordable "dopamine" experiences in the era of digital social media.
Analysts point out that in a digital world where consumers face "meaninglessness" and increasing pressure, emerging IP suggests that China is gradually shifting from an investment-driven model to a consumption-driven model. Traditional liquor is deeply rooted in Chinese traditional culture, and its globalization process is still in the early stages, while emerging IP, which is highly in tune with the global zeitgeist, has already achieved significant global success.
Social attribute differences: The social attributes of traditional liquor rely more on power and hierarchical systems, primarily serving business occasions; emerging IPs represent the younger generation's social interactions based on interests and values, emphasizing emotional value and instant gratification.
Consumption Motivation: Traditional liquor can serve as a "productivity tool" (business lubricant), while emerging IP meets the pursuit of emotional value and "dopamine" style consumption among young people in a digital social environment, reflecting China's trend of transition from investment-driven to consumption-driven.
Globalization process: Traditional Baijiu is deeply rooted in Chinese traditional culture and is still in the early stages of globalization; emerging IPs have already achieved significant success worldwide, aligning with global trends.
The Double-edged Sword of IP Cycle Risks and Investment Attributes
While experiencing rapid growth, analysts have also pointed out the similar challenges faced by emerging IP companies and traditional liquor enterprises, namely the dual test brought by the IP lifecycle and product investment attributes.
Analysts believe that whether the net profit of emerging IP companies in 2025 is 8 billion yuan or 10 billion yuan is not important, as it depends on the shipping speed of blockbuster products. Instead, what matters is how to balance recent growth and the IP lifecycle.
IP lifecycle risk: Traditional liquor with a hundred years of history and official endorsement has proven its ability to withstand cycles. In contrast, the history of emerging IP companies and their representative products is only 15 years and 10 years, respectively, making the IP lifecycle a core risk.
The report suggests that as an IP platform, the diversified IP portfolio of emerging IP companies can mitigate risks, but their representative products are crucial for global success. If there is a prolonged gap between the representative product and the next blockbuster IP, their global growth may slow down. Furthermore, the "mainstreaming" of subcultures, while driving growth, may also dilute the unique social identity of the representative products, thereby alienating their core consumer base.
The pros and cons of investment properties: The history of traditional Chinese liquor indicates that "investability" is a double-edged sword; it acts as a booster during upward cycles and becomes an amplifier during downward cycles.
The report notes that emerging IP companies are actively managing the second-hand market prices to ensure their appeal to young consumers and to create a favorable environment for the launch of new IPs and products. Recently, the decline in second-hand prices of its representative product, the plush toy series, has been seen as a result of the company's proactive management of supply and demand dynamics.
Unignorable Regulation and Market Congestion
The report emphasizes that regulation and market sentiment are two other risk factors that investors must face.
Regulatory Risks: Traditional liquor has always been influenced by price controls and anti-corruption campaigns. Similarly, emerging IP companies are not in a regulatory vacuum. A recent article from a reputable media outlet has warned about market-related risks. However, analysts believe that as the consumer base of emerging IP companies becomes increasingly diversified, "mainstreaming" reduces their exposure to minors in the Chinese market. At the same time, the growing overseas business (expected to contribute more than half of sales by 2025) also helps hedge against regulatory risks in a single market. However, this risk may still negatively impact the company's fundamentals or trigger "headline noise" that leads to stock price volatility.
The vulnerability of "herd" trading: every cycle in the capital market may experience dominant "crowded trades". The influx of funds into consumer blue chips represented by traditional liquor from 2016 to 2021 is quite similar to the current concentration of funds in the "new consumption" track focused on emerging IP companies. Changes in capital flow and positions can have a huge impact on valuations— the forward price-to-earnings ratio of traditional liquor was close to 60 times in early 2021, while it is currently only 18-19 times. Although recent changes in capital flows have put some pressure on "new consumption" stocks like emerging IP companies, the report suggests that this "crowded" situation may persist for a while in the context of the scarcity of high-quality investment targets. The real turning point may only come when meaningful inflection points appear in high-frequency data from overseas markets or when a strong recovery of the Chinese economy provides investors with more choices.