The first monthly fall in crude oil and the imminent breakthrough in natural gas, how will the intensified fluctuation in the energy market affect the Bitcoin trend? | Analysis of the linkage between commodities and Crypto Assets.

WTI crude oil has fallen for the first time in four months, currently trading around $64; natural gas is consolidating close to $2.97 after breaking through a bearish channel, with a technical bias towards the upside; Brent crude oil is brewing a triangle breakout. The supply and demand game in the energy market is intensifying fluctuations. This article combines technical analysis and macro sentiment to deeply analyze the hidden connections and trading opportunities between commodities and Bitcoin.

[Energy market monthly performance divergence, crude oil under pressure, natural gas strengthens]

(Source: TradingView)

WTI crude oil fell to $64 a barrel on Friday, marking the first monthly decline in four months, but is still expected to close higher this week. The market is caught in a supply-demand tug-of-war: the IEA predicts a global supply surplus, OPEC+ is gradually restoring production capacity, and the end of the driving season in the U.S. leads to a seasonal decline in demand; however, geopolitical risks and factors such as declining Russian exports provide support. Brent crude is trading at $67.47, showing a triangular convergence pattern, and may challenge the $70 mark after breaking through $68.47.

[Natural Gas Technology Breakthrough, Bulls Aim for 3.14 Target Level]

(Source: TradingView)

Natural gas futures are currently trading around $2.97, entering a consolidation phase after breaking out of the descending channel on the 4-hour chart. The 2.91 level has turned from resistance to support; if this level holds, the upward targets are 3.04 and 3.14. The long lower shadow in the candlestick indicates buying support, with the structure forming higher lows, suggesting a bullish tendency. If it falls below 2.91, it may test support at 2.80 or even 2.70. The trading strategy uses 2.91 as the dividing line for long and short positions.

[Crude Oil Triangle Convergence Brewing Breakthrough Key Levels Overview]

(Source: TradingView)

WTI crude oil is within a symmetrical triangle formed by the ascending trend line at 61.50 and the descending resistance at 65.10, with support at 62.96 and 61.54. A breakout above 65.12 would open the way to 65.79 and 66.46. Brent crude oil's triangular range is between support at 66.36 and resistance at 68.47, and the direction of the breakout will determine the next phase of the trend. Currently, the K-line shows hesitation around 67.70, and confirmation of a breakout is needed.

[In-depth Analysis of the Correlation between Bitcoin and the Energy Market]

Although Bitcoin has no direct supply-demand linkage with crude oil, the two are implicitly related through multiple channels:

1. Inflation Expectation Channel: As a leading indicator of inflation, the decline in oil prices may alleviate inflationary pressures and delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike pace, indirectly benefiting risk assets such as Bitcoin.

2. Market Sentiment Transmission: When the energy market experiences increased fluctuation, it may trigger changes in the global risk asset preference, with Bitcoin being a high-risk asset that is easily affected.

3. Mining Cost Association: Rising natural gas prices may increase electricity costs for mining in the United States, potentially impacting the distribution of Bitcoin network hash power.

Recently, the correlation between Bitcoin and the US technology sector remains high, and we need to be cautious of the energy market fluctuations transmitting to the cryptocurrency market through the US stock market.

[Trading Strategies and Risk Tips]

The breakthrough in the energy market is imminent, and a trend行情 will emerge after the direction is chosen. Traders should:

• Closely monitor the breakout effect of WTI crude oil at 65.12 and Brent crude oil at 68.47
• Natural gas bulls need to maintain the support level at 2.91
• Bitcoin traders need to pay attention to the evening's US PCE data and the response of the US stock market, to guard against fluctuations in the energy market being transmitted through risk sentiment channels.
• Conservative investors may consider a hedging portfolio strategy of energy stocks and cryptocurrencies.

[Conclusion]

The energy market is at a critical turning point, with crude oil triangular consolidation and natural gas breakthroughs resonating together. Although Bitcoin currently appears independent, caution is needed regarding the transmission of macro sentiments and the spillover of related asset fluctuations. It is recommended that multi-asset investors expand their observation dimensions to grasp the linkage logic between commodities and cryptocurrencies, seeking Alpha opportunities amidst fluctuations.