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The crypto market is experiencing a high-level fluctuation, and the MACD trend strategy is performing remarkably.
Crypto Assets Market Trend Analysis and Quantitative Strategy Review from July 15 to 28
Market Overview
The overall cryptocurrency market has maintained a high-level consolidation pattern in the past two weeks. Bitcoin has entered a range consolidation after reaching a historical high, with both volume and volatility showing a converging trend, but the bottom support remains stable, and the structure has not been damaged. Ethereum, on the other hand, shows a steady trend, moving upwards along the moving averages and approaching 4,000 dollars, performing relatively strong. In terms of volatility, Bitcoin's rhythm is steady, while Ethereum's volatility has significantly increased, reflecting a divergence of funds and a rise in tentative sentiment.
In terms of the ratio of long and short trading scale, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have weakened, indicating a growing divergence in market sentiment and a more cautious fund layout. The overall contract positions remain in high-level fluctuations, showing that the heat of leveraged funds is still strong, with Ethereum's growth rate outpacing others. The funding rate fluctuates slightly around the zero axis, reflecting that this round of increase is more driven by spot trading and low-leverage funds, with the market structure relatively stable.
In terms of liquidation data, on July 23, the amount of long liquidations reached 630 million USD, which is the highest value in this phase, indicating that funds chasing long positions at high levels encountered reverse liquidation during the volatility washout. Overall, the current contract liquidation structure does not show systemic imbalance; the liquidation of long positions in this phase helps to release short-term overheating sentiment and clean up floating chips.
Quantitative Strategy Analysis
This article uses the MACD trend strategy as an example and backtests the 1-hour K-line data from May 2024 to July 2025. The core logic of the strategy is: the MACD golden cross triggers a buy signal, while the MACD death cross, fixed stop loss, or fixed take profit triggers a closing signal. The backtest results show:
Overall, the MACD trend strategy achieves a good balance between profitability, drawdown control, and capital efficiency, making it particularly suitable for market structures with medium to high volatility and unclear trends. In the future, further incorporation of volume confirmation, moving average filtering, or multi-period signal resonance mechanisms can enhance signal accuracy and continuously improve the adaptability and scalability of the strategy.
Market Outlook
The overall cryptocurrency market maintains a structurally bullish pattern, but short-term market sentiment is becoming cautious, with a conservative pace of capital entry. Future trends will highly depend on the further evolution of the capital situation and trading structure, especially factors such as trading volume alignment, capital rate recovery, and position stability. At this critical juncture where the structure is bullish but divergences are intensifying, short-term strategies should place greater emphasis on rhythm control and risk management, flexibly combining trend tools and position management to steadily seek out certainty opportunities amidst complex market conditions.