Bitcoin Ancient Address Activation Triggers Market Fluctuation, U.S. Macroeconomic Policy May Become an Important Driving Force

On Friday, 8 ancient addresses that had been dormant for 14 years, holding a total of 80,000 Bitcoins, were suddenly activated, causing a brief market downturn. Analysis shows that these addresses may belong to an independent miner from 2011, who accumulated mining rewards from 180 blocks and once held 200,000 Bitcoins, making him the fifth largest whale in Bitcoin history.

The market reacted strongly to this news, mainly because the holding cost of these Bitcoins is only $1.76 each, and based on the current price of $108,000, the unrealized profit reaches as high as 61,000 times. A massive sell-off could cause a huge impact on the market. Looking back at the market turmoil caused by the German government's sale of about 50,000 Bitcoins in 2024 (with a maximum drop of 32%), the potential selling pressure of 80,000 Bitcoins this time may lead to even more severe market fluctuations.

There are various speculations in the market regarding the sudden activation of ancient Bitcoin. Some believe it could be that a miner recently recovered a hard drive containing the private keys. Others speculate that this might be the main capital testing market reactions for the upcoming distribution of chips during the current Bitcoin rally. Based on the current situation, the latter possibility seems more likely. After activation, these Bitcoins were only transferred to a new Address, with no further actions taken, which aligns with the security management practices of large holders. Moreover, after the news was announced, the price of Bitcoin only slightly dropped by 1.09%, indicating that the market did not panic excessively.

At the same time, changes in U.S. macroeconomic policy may become an important factor driving Bitcoin prices. The recently passed "Big and Beautiful Act" marks the restart and expansion of fiscal expansion policies in the U.S. This act is expected to lead to an increase in the federal budget deficit of up to $5 trillion, significantly exceeding the impact of the previous "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act." While it may increase national debt risk in the long term, these measures are expected to stimulate consumption and boost the stock market in the short term.

Another potential positive factor is the adjustment of the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) in the banking system. The Federal Reserve is considering lowering the SLR requirement for large banks from 5% to 3.5%, and may exclude low-risk assets from the leverage ratio calculation. This adjustment is expected to free up about $2 trillion in balance sheet space for large U.S. banks and help lower long-term Treasury yields.

The current macro policy mix in the United States is clear: new debt will be jointly undertaken by the banking system and the stablecoin legislation, while the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will provide basic liquidity support for this. This policy loop is operating smoothly in the short term and is expected to continue supporting risk assets, including Bitcoin, to remain strong.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is still in the main upward wave phase, and short-term market noise only causes intraday fluctuations. With strong market consensus, the likelihood of a deep adjustment in Bitcoin is low. It is expected that after a brief consolidation, the price will continue to rise, with a long-term target range of 127600-137500.