Comparison Analysis of Airdrop Effects of Arbitrum and Optimism

Recently, the Airdrop of Arbitrum has once again attracted attention in the cryptocurrency circle. How does the impact of this Airdrop compare to the first round of Airdrop by Optimism at the end of May last year? Currently, two of the four major Layer 2 projects have already conducted Airdrops, which has sparked strong expectations among users for potential Airdrops from ZkSync and Starknet in the future. What are the similarities and differences in the Airdrop rules of Optimism and Arbitrum? How will these Airdrops affect the network fundamentals and ecosystem?

After a comprehensive analysis of the airdrop data and on-chain data, it was found that:

1. The scale of this Arbitrum Airdrop and the number of users covered exceeded the first round Airdrop of Optimism.

2. The Airdrop of Arbitrum seems to be more friendly to ordinary users, while the first round Airdrop of Optimism tends to reward highly active users. In terms of estimated average earnings, most addresses can receive about 700 USD in the first round Airdrop of Optimism; based on the maximum Airdrop amount, a single address can receive up to 45,000 USD. In this Airdrop of Arbitrum, most addresses can receive about 1,350 USD; a single address can receive up to 13,800 USD.

3. The second round of Optimism airdrop is approximately 0.27% of the initial supply, which amounts to 11.74 million OP, meaning that there is still 13.73% of 590 million OP that has not been airdropped. The remaining portion may be used for subsequent airdrop rounds.

4. Some DAOs that received Arbitrum Airdrop are considering a secondary airdrop of tokens to users, which could effectively create a "second round" of airdrops. 137 DAOs received airdrops ranging from 75,000 to 8 million ARB, with 19 DAOs receiving over 2 million ARB, including GMX, Uniswap, DOPEX, and others.

5. After the Arbitrum Airdrop, the activity on the Nova chain slightly increased, with daily trading volume and the number of new addresses rising by over 196%. This may be related to rumors that Arbitrum might incentivize Nova users in the future, but this news has not yet been confirmed.

6. Both Optimism and Arbitrum Airdrop have increased the total locked value of DeFi on their respective chains. Within one month after two rounds of Airdrop, Optimism's total locked value increased by 101% and 10%, respectively. Since the Airdrop, Arbitrum's total locked value has increased by 7.97%.

Airdrop Profit Comparison: Most users made about $700 in the OP airdrop and about $1350 in the ARB airdrop.

The scale of this Arbitrum airdrop is significantly larger than that of the first round of Optimism airdrop. In terms of the recipients of the airdrop, Arbitrum covered 625,100 user addresses and 137 important DAO treasury addresses. In comparison, Optimism only involved 248,700 user addresses.

In terms of the airdrop quantity, Arbitrum's total airdrop amount reached 1.275 billion ARB, with 91% targeted at users. The total amount for the first round of Optimism's airdrop was 215 million OP. Based on the price on the first day of listing, the valuation of Arbitrum's airdrop is approximately 1.715 billion USD (, with a first-day listing price of about 1.35 USD ), while the valuation of Optimism's first round airdrop is around 300 million USD (, with a first-day listing price of about 1.40 USD ).

Currently, 88.49% of addresses have claimed 89% of the tokens for this Arbitrum airdrop, and the remaining tokens can be claimed before September 23. In comparison, only 63.07% of addresses claimed 76.28% of the tokens in the first round of Optimism airdrop, resulting in a low completion rate.

So, with such a large-scale Airdrop, how much profit can each address receive?

According to the airdrop standards released by Optimism, a single address can receive a minimum of about 272 OP and a maximum of 32432 OP, with significant differences in the amounts received by different addresses. Data shows that 42.12% of eligible addresses received less than 500 OP, 38.28% received between 500 and 1000 OP, meaning that over 80% of eligible addresses received no more than 1000 OP.

If we take the average of 500 OP within the range of 0-1000 OP as the amount received by most addresses, and then estimate the average profit based on the closing price of OP on the day of the airdrop and during the following month, then most addresses can profit $700, with a maximum profit of $770 within one month after the airdrop. If we calculate based on the maximum airdrop amount, a single address can profit up to $45,000, and the maximum can reach $50,000 within one month after the airdrop.

Looking at Arbitrum again. According to the official standards released, a single address can receive between 625 and 10,250 ARB. The data shows that 32.02% of eligible addresses received less than 1,000 ARB, and 39.35% received between 1,000 and 2,000 ARB, meaning over 70% of eligible addresses received no more than 2,000 ARB.

Taking the average of 1000 ARB in the range of 0-2000 ARB as the amount received by most addresses, and combining it with the closing price of ARB on the day of the Airdrop and thereafter, the average profit for most addresses can be estimated at $1350, with a maximum of $1400 so far. If calculated based on the maximum Airdrop amount, a single address can achieve a maximum profit of $13,800, with a maximum of $14,000 so far.

In comparison, most addresses in the Arbitrum airdrop this time made a profit of approximately 1,350 USD, which is about 1 times that of the Optimism first round airdrop of 700 USD. However, the highest profit for a single address in the Arbitrum airdrop was only around 113.5 USD, which is about 30% of the 450 USD for Optimism. This indicates that the Arbitrum airdrop may be more friendly to ordinary users, while the Optimism first round airdrop favored highly active users.

It is generally believed that tokens will face significant selling pressure after an airdrop, leading to a price decline. This was indeed the case with the first airdrop of Optimism. OP fell from $1.40 on the day of the airdrop to $0.58 a month later, a drop of approximately 58.57%. ARB has also experienced significant fluctuations since the airdrop, facing considerable selling pressure in the early stages.

Further comparison of the ETH price trend reveals that the price trend within one month after the OP Airdrop is correlated with the ETH trend, while the price trend since the ARB Airdrop is contrary to the ETH trend. This may be related to the comprehensive governance proposal (AIP-1) initiated by the Arbitrum Foundation being questioned by the community. This indicates that the price trend of tokens after an airdrop is affected by both internal and external factors. On one hand, it is related to the overall trend of the cryptocurrency market, and users' selling strategies need to consider the market environment; on the other hand, it is also related to community consensus and confidence, as airdrops closely link the roles of the foundation, community, developers, and others.

Second round Airdrop: The scale of the second round of OP is only 0.27% of the initial supply.

On February 9 this year, Optimism conducted the second round of Airdrop for users who participated in governance and actively used the network, with a total of approximately 11.7423 million OP, and about 308,000 addresses were eligible to receive it. According to the rules announced by the official, the initial total supply of OP is 4.295 billion pieces, of which 19%(8.16 billion OP) is allocated for Airdrop. In the first round, 5%(2.15 billion OP) was already airdropped, and the second round is estimated to be about 0.27%(1.174 million OP) of the initial supply, indicating that there is still 13.73%(5.90 billion OP) yet to be airdropped. The remaining portion may be used for subsequent rounds of airdrops.

From the perspective of the number of airdrop distributions, about 72% of eligible addresses received less than 10 OP. If we combine the group average of 5 OP and estimate based on the price on the day of the second round airdrop, most addresses can only profit $13.8. The "wealth creation" effect is far less than that of the first round airdrop.

Arbitrum did not mention in the airdrop rules that there would be other rounds of airdrops in the future, but part of this airdrop was allocated to the DAO, and some projects will redistribute the airdrop they receive to users. For example, StarGate has voted on redistribution, which may create a de facto "second round."

Arbitrum conducted a comprehensive evaluation of protocols under DAO governance and airdropped between 75,000 and 8 million ARB to 137 DAO treasury addresses. Among them, 46% of the DAOs received 75,000 ARB, which is estimated to be approximately $101,300 based on the price on the first day of launch. Additionally, 19 DAOs received over 2 million ARB, including GMX, Uniswap, DOPEX, etc.

After the Airdrop, the on-chain activity of Optimism has decreased, while the activity of Arbitrum Nova has significantly increased.

One of the main purposes of airdrops is to incentivize users to increase network activity. Data shows that after the first round of OP airdrops, the daily on-chain transaction count dropped from 273,800 to 78,600 within one month, a decrease of 71.31%; the number of daily new addresses fell from 15,900 to 885, a decrease of 94.42%. After the second round of OP airdrops, the daily on-chain transaction count rose from 262,800 to 279,000 within one month, a slight increase of 6.17%; the number of daily new addresses increased from 3,071 to 6,088, an increase of 98.24%.

Overall, after the OP Airdrop in the short term, the on-chain activity of ( did not increase within one month of the first round of the airdrop, but in the long term, after the second round of the airdrop, there was an increase within one month of ). However, it is difficult to attribute this increase solely to the airdrop.

The situation with Arbitrum is similar. Data shows that since the ARB Airdrop, the daily transaction count on the ArbitrumOne network has decreased from 2.7339 million to 1.0067 million, a decline of 63.17%; the daily new addresses decreased from 107,200 to 45,000, a decline of 57.96%. It can be seen that in the short term, the on-chain activity as of March 31, ( has not improved either.

However, during the same period, the activity on the Arbitrum Nova chain has seen a slight increase. Since the Airdrop, the daily transaction count has risen from 86,500 to 256,800, an increase of 196.94%; the number of new daily addresses has increased from 1,931 to 5,725, an increase of 196.48%. This may be related to rumors that Arbitrum may incentivize Nova users in the future, but this information has not yet been confirmed.

![Data comparison of OP and ARB Airdrop: OP single address profits high, ARB has more users receiving airdrops])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-4d4788ca1051cdb68e77092739a374f7.webp(

It can be seen that users, driven by expectations of future Airdrops, may actively participate in on-chain interactions, such as the recent on-chain data performance of Arbitrum Nova, ZkSync, and Starknet. However, this expectation-driven behavior may not necessarily have long-term sustainability, nor may it apply to a broad base of ordinary users, thus not manifesting as a long-term upward trend in on-chain data; for example, the current on-chain data of ZkSync and Starknet has started to decline. The increase in on-chain activity may be influenced by more complex factors, of which Airdrops are just one.

Another main purpose of the Airdrop is to promote the development of the on-chain ecosystem, while user interactions with on-chain protocols often serve as the basis for the Airdrop. Data shows that after the Airdrops of Optimism and Arbitrum, the total locked value in their respective on-chain DeFi increased. Specifically, after the first round of Optimism's Airdrop, the total locked value rose by 101.18% within one month; after the second round of Airdrop, it increased by 10.25% within one month. Since the Airdrop from Arbitrum, the total locked value has risen by 7.97%.

However, the increase in the locked amount of leading protocols after the Airdrop varies. Among them, the locked amount of Uniswapv3 increased by 111.38% within one month after the first round of Airdrop on Optimism, while the locked amount of SonneFinance increased by 136.18% within one month after the second round of Airdrop on Optimism, showing significant growth. Since the Airdrop on Arbitrum, the increase in the locked amounts of AAVE v3 and ArbitrumExchange has been more noticeable, both exceeding 25%.

![Data comparison of OP and ARB Airdrop: OP single address profits high, ARB has more users receiving Airdrop])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-9758942442cb37bebe8f76d9ffe446f2.webp(