Bitcoin on-chain signal revealed: short-term holder balance movements absent, suggesting the bull run has not yet peaked? | BTC price prediction

The latest data from the institutional-level on-chain analysis firm Sentora (formerly IntoTheBlock) shows that the short-term holder balance of Bitcoin (holders with less than 1 month of holding) has not shown significant fluctuation recently, breaking the historical pattern of "market turning point warning". During the strong rise of Bitcoin breaking its all-time high (ATH), the net change in supply from this group approached zero, contrasting sharply with the "balance surge" pattern typically seen at market tops. Coupled with the on-chain trading volume soaring to $700 billion (a new high since 2022), analysts believe the current bull run may still have upward potential.

Analysis of the Dynamics of Three Major Holder Groups: Short-term Traders as Key Indicators

The research report released by Sentora through Platform X classifies Bitcoin holders into three categories based on the holding period:

1. Traders: Holders < 1 month, including newcomers and high-frequency traders.
2. Cruisers: Holders for 1 month to 1 year, mid-term investors
3. Diamond Hands (Hodlers): Holders > 1 year, long-term steadfast holders

Historical patterns reveal: short-term holder movements = market turning point precursor

Data analysis shows that the balance changes of the three categories of groups exhibit a clear periodic pattern:

• Market Top: Hodlers and Cruisers massively realized profits, with their sold coins' age resetting to zero and being counted into Traders' supply, resulting in a sharp rise in their balances.
• Market Bottom: Cruisers and Hodlers panic sell, which also triggers a surge in Traders' balances.
• Current Anomaly: Despite Bitcoin hitting an all-time high, the Traders' supply has not shown significant fluctuation. Sentora noted: "Interestingly, we are not observing any major movements at this moment."

On-chain volume surges, activity approaches cycle peak

Another key data disclosed by Sentora:

• Last week's Bitcoin on-chain transaction volume approached $700 billion
• Numerical Meaning:

  • Highest weekly record since 2022

  • The peak activity level of the current bull run cycle

  • Still about 35% lower than the 2021 bull run peak

    

Conclusion: Missing Top Signals or Indications of Upward Continuation

The current market presents a unique combination: ✓ Price hits new high + ✓ On-chain activity peaks + ✗ Short-term holder balance remains stable

This contradictory phenomenon may imply:

1. Long-term holders (Hodlers) have not yet initiated large-scale profit-taking.
2. Market sentiment has not reached extreme euphoria.
3. Current pump trend may still have room for continuation

Investors need to continuously monitor the balance changes of short-term holders. If this indicator shows a sharp increase, it may signal that a temporary peak is approaching. At the same time, pay attention to whether on-chain volume can remain high, as this will determine the sustainability of the upward momentum.