Can Bitcoin maintain its historical rise in July? Focus on important legislation and market trends.
1. Market Observation
The current monetary policy of the Federal Reserve faces a complex situation. Chairman Powell stated that tariff policies may affect the effectiveness of inflation control, otherwise interest rate cuts may have already begun. Although there are still variables in the July interest rate decision, policy flexibility seems to have increased, and if future employment data weakens, the possibility of interest rate cuts may increase. Meanwhile, new changes have emerged in U.S. fiscal policy, with the much-watched tax and spending bill passing the Senate by a narrow margin, and the House of Representatives will debate and vote on it on Wednesday. The bill encompasses a wide range of content, including tax cuts, adjustments to social spending, increases in military and immigration enforcement budgets, and is expected to significantly increase the national debt over the next decade. In terms of trade, the government has taken a tough stance, insisting on the July 9 tariff deadline and pressuring Japan, which exacerbates uncertainty in the global market. It is worth noting that U.S. stocks will have an early market closure at 1:00 AM Beijing time on July 4 and will be closed all day on July 4, leading the market into a brief period of silence.
On the occasion of the 28th anniversary of Hong Kong's return, a licensed virtual asset exchange has set up an experience booth at the West Kowloon high-speed railway station to provide convenient services to the public. Industry analysis suggests that the development of Web3 not only involves technological iteration but also concerns the reshaping of efficiency and trust systems. The year 2025 is seen as a key year for Hong Kong's digital sovereignty and institutional innovation. Against the backdrop of accelerated trends in on-chain efficiency improvement and the institutionalization of digital assets, Hong Kong is expected to play a leading role in the global new financial order.
Bitcoin dropped to $105,000 this morning. An analyst from a trading platform pointed out that the upward momentum of Bitcoin has shown signs of weakening, and it may enter a consolidation phase or a local peak. The decline in spot trading volume and an increase in profit-taking make the short-term holder's cost price of $98,700 a key support level. Historical data shows that Bitcoin usually performs poorly in the third quarter, with an average return rate of 6%. It is expected that future price volatility may further decrease, and the trend may continue to oscillate within a range. Data indicates that in the past decade, Bitcoin recorded gains in seven Julys, with an average increase of 9.1%. Historical data supports the market's expectation of challenging the $116,000 level. Some analysts hold a cautious attitude, warning that a real sell-off may not have started yet, predicting that Bitcoin's price could drop below $100,000, and may even touch a potential bottom of $60,000 to $70,000. If this trend materializes, other cryptocurrencies may face a further decline risk of 50% to 80%.
On-chain market conditions have been relatively calm recently, with no hot projects emerging. However, the stock-on-chain craze initiated by certain platforms has brought some highlights. A publicly listed company's stock price reached a historical high of $99.18 yesterday, which also revitalized related tokens on a public chain, with its market cap soaring from $14,000 to $4.4 million within three days, rising 1400% in 24 hours.
Sector performance: AI sector down 4.48%; RWA sector down 4.72%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 100,830 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of 256 million USD, including BTC liquidations of 77.6394 million USD, ETH liquidations of 56.1918 million USD, and SOL liquidations of 13.8666 million USD.
BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper boundary line (107151.13 USD), lower boundary line (105029.32 USD)
ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper line (2467.39 USD), lower line (2418.53 USD)
3. ETF Flows (as of July 1)
Bitcoin ETF: -$342 million (net inflow ends after 15 consecutive days)
Ethereum ETF: +40.6798 million USD (net inflow for 3 days)
4. Today's Outlook
Due to Independence Day in the United States, the US stock market will close 3 hours early on July 3 (that is, at 1 AM Beijing time on July 4); it will be closed all day on July 4.
A certain trading platform will launch the Echo Protocol on July 2, ( ECHO )
A certain exchange has launched Wormhole (W)
The Rex-Osprey Solana Staking ETF is expected to launch on July 2.
A trading platform will delist the USDT perpetual contract trading pairs for NC, SLERF, KNC, and ALPHAd on July 4th at 16:00.
U.S. June ADP employment number ( ten thousand ): Previous value 3.7, expected 9.5 (July 2, 20:15)
US June unemployment rate: Previous value 4.2%, Expected 4.3% (July 3, 20:30)
U.S. June seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population ( million ): Previous value 13.9, expected 11 (July 3, 20:30)
Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 40.6 million tokens on July 2 at 3 PM, which accounts for 0.67% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately 10.7 million USD.
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RugResistant
· 07-13 11:39
July Fluctuation risk is high
View OriginalReply0
GateUser-a5fa8bd0
· 07-10 22:18
There are opportunities in crisis.
View OriginalReply0
CafeMinor
· 07-10 22:14
Even if you encounter setbacks in July, you should still practice Coin Hoarding.
Will Bitcoin continue to rise in July? Analysis of legislation, market trends, and historical data.
Can Bitcoin maintain its historical rise in July? Focus on important legislation and market trends.
1. Market Observation
The current monetary policy of the Federal Reserve faces a complex situation. Chairman Powell stated that tariff policies may affect the effectiveness of inflation control, otherwise interest rate cuts may have already begun. Although there are still variables in the July interest rate decision, policy flexibility seems to have increased, and if future employment data weakens, the possibility of interest rate cuts may increase. Meanwhile, new changes have emerged in U.S. fiscal policy, with the much-watched tax and spending bill passing the Senate by a narrow margin, and the House of Representatives will debate and vote on it on Wednesday. The bill encompasses a wide range of content, including tax cuts, adjustments to social spending, increases in military and immigration enforcement budgets, and is expected to significantly increase the national debt over the next decade. In terms of trade, the government has taken a tough stance, insisting on the July 9 tariff deadline and pressuring Japan, which exacerbates uncertainty in the global market. It is worth noting that U.S. stocks will have an early market closure at 1:00 AM Beijing time on July 4 and will be closed all day on July 4, leading the market into a brief period of silence.
On the occasion of the 28th anniversary of Hong Kong's return, a licensed virtual asset exchange has set up an experience booth at the West Kowloon high-speed railway station to provide convenient services to the public. Industry analysis suggests that the development of Web3 not only involves technological iteration but also concerns the reshaping of efficiency and trust systems. The year 2025 is seen as a key year for Hong Kong's digital sovereignty and institutional innovation. Against the backdrop of accelerated trends in on-chain efficiency improvement and the institutionalization of digital assets, Hong Kong is expected to play a leading role in the global new financial order.
Bitcoin dropped to $105,000 this morning. An analyst from a trading platform pointed out that the upward momentum of Bitcoin has shown signs of weakening, and it may enter a consolidation phase or a local peak. The decline in spot trading volume and an increase in profit-taking make the short-term holder's cost price of $98,700 a key support level. Historical data shows that Bitcoin usually performs poorly in the third quarter, with an average return rate of 6%. It is expected that future price volatility may further decrease, and the trend may continue to oscillate within a range. Data indicates that in the past decade, Bitcoin recorded gains in seven Julys, with an average increase of 9.1%. Historical data supports the market's expectation of challenging the $116,000 level. Some analysts hold a cautious attitude, warning that a real sell-off may not have started yet, predicting that Bitcoin's price could drop below $100,000, and may even touch a potential bottom of $60,000 to $70,000. If this trend materializes, other cryptocurrencies may face a further decline risk of 50% to 80%.
On-chain market conditions have been relatively calm recently, with no hot projects emerging. However, the stock-on-chain craze initiated by certain platforms has brought some highlights. A publicly listed company's stock price reached a historical high of $99.18 yesterday, which also revitalized related tokens on a public chain, with its market cap soaring from $14,000 to $4.4 million within three days, rising 1400% in 24 hours.
2. Key Data (As of July 2, 12:00 HKT)
3. ETF Flows (as of July 1)
4. Today's Outlook
Due to Independence Day in the United States, the US stock market will close 3 hours early on July 3 (that is, at 1 AM Beijing time on July 4); it will be closed all day on July 4.
Today's top 500 market capitalization rises: Humanity Protocol (H) rises 106.52%, Cobak Token (CBK) rises 50.90%, Useless Coin (USELESS) rises 24.89%, Quantum Resistant Ledger (QRL) rises 17.70%, Aleo (ALEO) rises 16.68%.
5. Hot News