BTC Weekly Market Overview (February 10 to 16): Progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations brings optimism, BTC seeks direction amid low fluctuation.

This week, the opening price of Bitcoin was $96,481.47, and the closing price was $96,119.88, a decrease of 0.37% during the week. The price fluctuation range has narrowed to 5%, and trading volume has significantly decreased. The price of Bitcoin remains within the range of $89,000 to $110,000.

Although there are several important events this week, such as the release of the US January CPI data, adjustments to US tariff policies, and the testimony of the Federal Reserve Chairman before Congress, these factors have not had a significant impact on the stock market and the cryptocurrency market, possibly because the market had already anticipated them.

As the United States pushes the Russia-Ukraine conflict towards negotiations, market sentiment seems to be becoming optimistic. The dollar index has dropped significantly, U.S. Treasury yields continue to decline, and U.S. stock indices have risen, approaching historical highs again. The negative impact of Trump-related trades appears to be weakening, but further confirmation from the market is still needed.

Bitcoin is currently operating within the range of $89,000 to $110,000, with the price breaking below the second upward trend line, oscillating narrowly around $97,000, and is expected to make a directional choice soon.

Macroeconomic Data Analysis

The U.S. January CPI data exceeded expectations across the board, with a year-on-year growth of 3% and a month-on-month growth of 0.5%, higher than the market expectations of 2.9% and 0.3%. The core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year, also surpassing the expected 3.1%.

These data indicate that the economy remains strong and inflation has rebounded. Market expectations for interest rate cuts this year have been revised down again, currently leaning towards a cut happening only around December.

The Chairman of the Federal Reserve stated in his semiannual monetary policy testimony before Congress that if the economy continues to grow and inflation does not quickly fall back to the 2% target, the Federal Reserve may maintain its current policy for a period of time. Conversely, if the labor market unexpectedly weakens or the decline in inflation exceeds expectations, the Federal Reserve may continue to moderately ease monetary policy.

In addition, Trump announced that he would implement "reciprocal tariffs" on all countries, but did not specify a start date, so it has not had a substantial impact on the market.

More importantly, the Russia-Ukraine conflict may soon achieve significant progress. Reports indicate that both sides are engaged in dialogue negotiations, and this development could bring positive effects to the global economy and financial markets.

As a result, the US dollar index fell by 1.22% to 106.813, and the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.48%. The three major US stock indexes all recorded gains for the week, with the Nasdaq up 2.58%, the S&P 500 up 1.47%, and the Dow Jones up 0.55%. Gold prices rose by 0.75%, reaching a new high of 2942.60 dollars/ounce during the session.

Market Supply and Demand Analysis

This week, long-term and short-term holders collectively sold 137,178 BTC, a significant decrease compared to last week. During the same period, the trading volume on exchanges also shrank noticeably, indicating that the short-term panic selling has significantly weakened. Currently, the average profit level of short-term holders has dropped to 6%, and there is a lack of motivation for both profit-taking and stop-loss.

Long-term holders paused selling this week, increasing their holdings by 8,000 BTC.

Capital Flow Situation

The stablecoin, Bitcoin spot ETF, and Ethereum spot ETF channels saw a total outflow of $252 million throughout the week. Among them, stablecoins inflowed $362 million, while Bitcoin spot ETF and Ethereum spot ETF saw outflows of $584 million and $29 million, respectively.

The outflow of funds from the ETF market is the main reason for Bitcoin's weaker performance compared to the US stock market last week.

Market Cycle Indicators

According to the eMerge engine data, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.75, indicating that the market is in an upward phase.