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The latest non-farm payroll data released far exceeded market expectations, and this result has almost completely dispelled hopes for a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July. According to data closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, the likelihood of keeping the current interest rate unchanged in July has surged to 95.3%, a probability that is incredibly hard to believe.
This sudden situation has significantly changed the market's original expectations. The market initially generally believed that the Federal Reserve might start cutting interest rates around mid-year, but now it seems that the timing for a rate cut may be postponed until September, and it may even take until December to be possible.
Next, market participants and economists will closely monitor the economic data trends in the coming months. This data will become a key indicator for assessing the direction of the Federal Reserve's subsequent monetary policy. In particular, inflation data, employment market performance, and overall economic growth conditions will all be important factors for decision-makers to weigh.
The strong performance of the non-farm payroll data once again highlights the resilience of the U.S. job market. However, this also brings new challenges for the Federal Reserve in finding a balance between inflation control and economic growth. The sudden shift in market expectations may trigger volatility in the financial markets in the short term, requiring investors to reassess their investment strategies and risk management measures.
Overall, the better-than-expected performance of this non-farm data has not only changed the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's policies but has also added more uncertainty to the economic trends in the coming months. All parties will continue to closely monitor the Federal Reserve's statements and subsequent economic data in search of more clues regarding the direction of future monetary policy.