The market remains stable ahead of the inflation data release, with Bitcoin and US stock index futures continuing to fluctuate within a narrow range.

On Thursday night, global risk assets remained generally stable as traders awaited the release of a key inflation metric on Friday—the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. This data will directly influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on December 10. Currently, the market is pricing in an 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut.

In U.S. equity futures, Dow Jones and S&P 500 futures were nearly flat, while Nasdaq futures rose 0.1%. Core PCE for September is expected to grow 2.9% year-over-year, marking the 55th consecutive month above the Fed’s 2% target, further increasing uncertainty around policy direction.

The crypto market also displayed low volatility. Bitcoin’s implied volatility is around 36%, corresponding to just a 1.88% 24-hour price range. BTC has been fluctuating between $92,000 and $94,000 for two consecutive days. If inflation weakens, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield could fall below 4%, providing an opportunity for Bitcoin to break out of its range. Nexo analysts stated that if the PCE data remains stable, it will further boost the momentum for crypto asset rebounds.

Among major cryptocurrencies, Ethereum is more volatile, with a daily implied volatility index at 57.23%, equating to an expected 3% price swing. Solana’s is at 3.86%, and XRP’s reaches 4.3%, the highest among major crypto assets. ING analysts cautioned that if U.S. Treasury yields dip temporarily, the impact could be similar across various crypto assets.

U.S. stocks were mixed on Thursday. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq edged higher, with tech stocks continuing to lead. Meta rose 3.4%, and Nvidia gained 2.1%, providing key support to the indices.

On Friday, the delayed September personal spending and income data will be released, along with the University of Michigan’s December consumer sentiment index. The latest initial jobless claims fell to the lowest level since September 2022, indicating a labor market cooling moderately rather than weakening sharply.

Meanwhile, the Challenger report showed that November layoffs reached 71,000, the worst for the same period since 2022. Nevertheless, rate cut expectations continue to dominate market sentiment; the CME FedWatch tool shows a December rate cut is “almost a certainty,” keeping overall market volatility at low levels.