Looking at the macro environment first—is there enough "liquidity" in the system. Old Powell's latest remarks yesterday basically extinguished expectations for rate cuts this year, and on top of that, the spot ETF data from mid-March on Wall Street has already begun showing obvious sustained net outflows these past few days. The active liquidity is receding—this is the underlying logic of major capital quietly distributing and retreating.

Back to today's market structure, the daily chart essentially broke through the key trough at 75,000 a while ago, and the long-term bullish trend has already been destroyed. The recent sharp move through 76,000 was quickly hammered back down—a textbook false breakout sweep. Over the past two days, prices have retreated to around 68k-69k, and we can indeed see major players stepping in from the footprint charts, but this fundamentally isn't about taking everyone to create new all-time highs. Rather, it's executing a "bear market retracement."

Where's the endpoint of this retracement? Based on recent order flow and Fibonacci retracement calculations, the real strong resistance and bull trap endpoint will most likely fall in the 73,000 to 74,500 range. Major players could well liquidate short stops above that level, attracting retail investors to chase aggressively during the weekend or early next week, and construct a macro lower high. Once buying power above 73k shows exhaustion, what comes next could be the real main downwave, targeting 60,000 or even lower liquidity pools.

So today's operational logic is actually very clear: short-term long on bounces around 69k is fine, but don't get locked into the wrong side. The real wealth code is patiently waiting for the major long-short showdown in the 73k-74.5k range.

What do you all think—is this rebound starting today the major players "backing up to pick everyone up," or is it to trap the last wave of chasers at around 73k?

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