Forecast for Toncoin (TON) in 2026: A Prolonged Pause

There are few cryptocurrencies on the market that are closely watched by members of the Russian crypto community, and TON is a prime example of such a coin. Perhaps its popularity among Russian investors stems from the fact that the project traces its roots back to the developments of the well-known Russian figure Pavel Durov.

Kirill Pissov, Head of Product Development at FG Finam, provided a forecast for TON in 2026 at the request of BeInCrypto. Here are the prospects he sees for the cryptocurrency.

I’ve been following TON since 2022 and have seen its journey from legal setbacks to viral hype and back into the gray zone. In 2024, everything was held together by Telegram and mini-games, but by the end of 2025, it became clear: without new products and real usability, the project stagnates. The question for 2026 is: will TON break free from the role of a “potential blockchain,” or will it remain attached to past achievements?
1. Toncoin Price: No Organic Growth, No Expectations of Rise

From $8 $1.5 in a year — almost minus 80%. This is not correction; it’s a crash. Even in a rising market, Toncoin proved weak. The reason is obvious: there’s no real demand. Everything relies on Telegram and faith in a “superapp of the future,” but apart from airdrops and “taps,” it’s empty.

Forecast for 2026: sideways movement around $1.5–2.5. Any altcoin season for Toncoin is more likely to be missed than led. Unlocks of (37 million TON per month) will continue to pressure the price for another three years. Inflation is low, but sales are real. Institutional investors entered, but not at current prices — and definitely not for HODLing.
2. Network Metrics: Activity Without Depth

By 2026, active addresses in the network will number 100–200 thousand. 30–40 thousand new wallets are created daily, but mostly due to inertia from past distributions. Transactions are ongoing — 1.9 million per day — but this is bot activity and microtransactions. Not an economy, but traffic.

DeFi is weak. TVL remains at $300–500 million, mostly in staking. Decentralized exchanges, loans, derivatives — all in the early stages. Without real demand and liquidity, growth is doubtful.
3. Ecosystem: Lots of Interface, Little Content

Games, NFTs, mini-apps — all launched, but conversions to sustainable use are almost nonexistent. Yes, Telegram distributed millions of NFT gifts and launched tgBTC, but all of this remains more of a showcase than a functioning economy.

The fund invests in GameFi and DAO projects, but they are still startups without traction. Everything depends on Telegram — without its push, the ecosystem falls silent.
TON Payments, Proxy, DNS — good infrastructure. But without killer features used daily, all of this is just technological stock, not a real advantage.
4. Telegram: Salvation and Anchor at the Same Time

Telegram is everything for TON. Wallets are built-in, mini-apps work, and the reach is a billion users. But engagement is minimal. Wallets are activated by millions, but used by only a few.

The problem is dependency: Telegram is not obliged to promote TON. Any change in strategy, conflict with Apple/Google, damage to reputation — and TON suffers. It’s not autonomous — it’s not a blockchain platform; it’s an overlay on a messenger.
5. Risks: Time Is Running Out

TON exists in a deferred future. Everything is “if”: if Telegram integrates finance, if new products appear, if developers come. But competitors are already doing this. Ethereum, Solana, L2 are growing, providing tools, and attracting dev teams. TON has an inconvenient tech stack, a small community, and an unstable foundation.

Unlocks continue until 2028. Every month, the market receives new millions of coins. Against the backdrop of weak demand, this is a heavy ballast.
Conclusion: TON Is Not Dead, But It Has Not Come Alive Either

The project has a window of opportunity — but it’s not infinite. 2026 will be the year of truth: either Telegram truly integrates Toncoin into finance, payments, and loans, making it part of everyday life — or the project will fade away, like dozens of other “hyped” blockchains.

Toncoin will not disappear. But it won’t shoot up on its own either. Without a clear push from Telegram and a strong influx of users, TON is doomed to drift sideways, turning into an experiment with a bright start and a blurry end.