Institution: Powell hints at possible rate cut again, as weak hiring causes unemployment rate to rise

On October 15, Fed Chairman Powell hinted that although the government shutdown has significantly weakened its ability to observe the economy, the Fed is still on track to cut rates by 25 basis points later this month. In his speech, Powell stated that the economic outlook seems unchanged since the September meeting. At that time, the Fed lowered rates and predicted two more cuts this year. Julia Coronado, founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives and former Fed economist, said, "The October rate cut is a done deal. Nothing can change the view that there are still downside risks in the labor market." Powell has repeatedly pointed out that hiring has been slow and may weaken further. Following Powell's remarks, expectations for an October rate cut have remained largely unchanged. Federal fund futures contracts show that investors see nearly a 100% chance of a rate cut. Yelena Shulyatyeva, senior U.S. economist at the Conference Board, stated, "Currently, the risks in terms of employment are rising. This will become a major driver of decisions in the near term." ( Jin10 )