Jin10 data reports on August 6 that Saudi Arabia will set the official selling price (OSP) of Arabian Light crude oil for September sales to Asia at a contango of $3.20 per barrel compared to the Oman/Dubai average price, with the contango for August being $2.20 per barrel. The official selling price (OSP) of Arabian Light crude oil for September sales to the United States will be at a contango of $4.2 per barrel compared to the Oman/Dubai average price, and the official selling price (OSP) for September sales to Northwest Europe will be at a contango of $3.35 per barrel compared to the Oman/Dubai average price.

On August 1st, Jin10 Data reported that traders said on Thursday that Saudi Arabia may raise its crude oil prices sold to Asia for the first time in three months in September. Four refining industry sources said in a Reuters survey that the official selling price (OSP) of Arab light crude oil shipped to Asia in September is expected to increase by pump 50-80 cents per barrel from last month. Five OPEC sources told Reuters that despite the recent sharp drop in oil prices, the committee is unlikely to make any changes to the current production cut protocol and begin to cancel some of the production cuts since October.

(1) Oil futures climbed on Monday as Saudi Arabia raised the price of June crude in most parts of the country and the prospects for a ceasefire protocol in Gaza seemed slim, renewing concerns that the Israeli-Hamas conflict could still expand in this important oil-producing region. (2) Brent crude futures pumped 0.5% to $83.40 a barrel; US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) CLc1 pumped 0.6% at $78.57 a barrel. (3) Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price (OSP) of crude oil sold to Asia, Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean in June, indicating that demand is expected to be strong this summer. (4) In China, the world's largest crude oil importer, its service sector activity continued to expand for the 16th consecutive month, while the rise of new orders accelerated and business confidence rise steadily, boosting hopes for a sustained economic recovery. (5) As the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza proceeded, the geopolitical risk premium on oil prices also retreated. However, Hamas reiterated its demand on Sunday to end the war in exchange for the release of the hostages, a demand that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu flatly refused, and the prospects for a ceasefire in Gaza seem slim. (6) IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said: "Protocol that Israel wants to continue to expand its operations to Rafah, threatens to undermine a potential ceasefire and reignite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that appear to be easing." ” (7) He added that with most of the oil longing positions already shorter last week, there seems to be a possibility of WTI prices rebounding to $80 at the start of the week. (8) For

Saudi Arabia, the largest oil exporter, is likely to raise the official selling price (OSP) of Arab Light crude in May after Middle Eastern benchmark crude strengthened last month, sources said. A Reuters poll of five refining sources showed that the OSP of Arab Light crude could be 20-30 cents a barrel higher in May than in April. Saudi Arabia's medium and heavy grade crude prices in May will be supported by the expected tightening of medium and heavy grade supplies due to oil field maintenance in Saudi Arabia, OPEC+ production cuts and increased domestic consumption in several Middle Eastern producers, the sources said. The official selling price of Saudi crude is usually released around the 5th of each month, setting trends for Iranian, Kuwaiti and Iraqi crude prices, affecting about 9 million barrels per day of crude destined for Asia. The chart below shows the Reuters poll's pricing expectations for Saudi Arabia's various types of oil products in May.

On March 1, several trade sources said that Saudi Arabia's crude oil scheduled price to Asian customers in April may remain unchanged after a slight increase in the price of Benchmark crude oil in the Middle East. According to a Reuters poll of six refining sources, the official selling price (OSP) of Arab Light crude in April is likely to remain unchanged or rise by 10-20 cents per barrel. One of the sources said that the market structure and product cracks have not changed much compared to last month, and now there is still uncertainty about Red Sea shipping, and it is possible that Saudi Arabia will want to ship this oil to Asia. Another source said the spread narrowed sharply from previous months after Saudi Arabia lowered its official selling price closer to the Benchmark. "In our view, Saudi Arabia should be fairly satisfied with the 45-cent regular crude premium," he said. ”

(1) Asia's crude imports grew strongly in the new year, reaching an eight-month high in January, as major buyers China and India snapped up cargoes. The world's largest crude importer arrived 28.57 million b/d in January, up from 27.03 million b/d in December, according to data compiled by LSEG Petroleum Research. (2) China, the world's largest crude buyer, imported 11.31 million b/d in January, slightly lower than the 11.48 million b/d in December but well above the 10.24 million b/d in January 2023, LSEG data showed. (3) Chinese refiners may be encouraged to keep imports at strong levels, given the generally low oil prices at the time of cargo arrangement, and the issuance of most annual import quotas in early 2024, rather than the customary instalments. China imported 1.94 million b/d of crude from Russia via pipelines and tankers in January, surpassing 1.68 million b/d from Saudi Arabia, making Russia its largest supplier. (4) However, it is worth noting that crude arrivals from Saudi Arabia increased from 1.38 million b/d in December, suggesting that the world's largest crude exporter is struggling to regain market share in China. (5) China's imports from Saudi Arabia are likely to increase further in February after Saudi Arabia lowered the official selling price (OSP) of its flagship Arabian Light crude for February loading to a 27-month low. It's not just China that has bought more Saudi oil, with Asian imports rise to 5.63 million b/d in January from 5.46 million b/d in December

(1) Oil prices fell more than 1% on Monday as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) increased production as Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude exporter, cut prices sharply, offsetting concerns about escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude fell 1.6% to $77.58 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate oil futures fell 1.71% to $72.58 a barrel. (2) Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analyst Vanda Insights, said: "Aramco's cut in its official selling price (OSP) in February reinforces the narrative of weak demand. ” (3) Increased supply and competition from rivals from oil producers prompted Saudi Arabia on Sunday to cut its February Asian OSP for its flagship Arabian Light crude to its lowest level in 27 months. (4) IG analyst Tony Sycamore said: "If we focus solely on fundamental factors, including rising inventories, OPEC/non-OPEC production increases, and lower-than-expected Saudi official selling prices, then there is only one way to be bearish on oil." However, this does not take into account the fact that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are undeniably heating up again, which would mean limited downside. ” (5) Brent and WTI crude rose more than 2% in the first week of 2024 as investors returned to work after the holiday season focused on the geopolitical risks in the Middle East following the Houthi attack on Red Sea ships in Yemen (Yemen).

Despite escalating tensions in the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia is likely to cut the premium for all grades of crude sold to Asia in February to a one-year low as concerns intensify that supply could outstrip demand. Saudi Arabia is likely to drop the official selling price (OSP) of its flagship Arabian Light crude in February, reducing its premium to Oman/Dubai by about $1.70/b to its lowest level in a year, according to five refining sources.

① Oman crude, the Middle East crude benchmark, fell, while Dubai's official selling price for crude oil held steady on Tuesday, despite Saudi Arabia's announcement that it would extend additional production cuts. ② Saudi Arabia said on Monday it would extend its voluntary production cut of 1 million barrels per day for another month, including August, adding that further extensions were possible. ③ Shortly after the Saudi announcement, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said Moscow would cut oil exports by 500,000 barrels per day in August. Several oil traders in Sri Lanka said that Saudi Arabia is expected to cut production further, while Russia's actual production reduction remains to be seen. ⑤ A Singapore-based trader said: "Now we can expect that Saudi Aramco will maintain the official selling price (OSP) in August at an expensive level." ⑥ Saudi crude oil OSP is usually released around the 5th of each month. Saudi Arabia's announcement on Monday came after a survey showed Asian refiners expected a 50-cent cut in August prices for Saudi Arabia's flagship crude, Arabian Light.

1. Saudi Arabia's decision to deepen crude production cuts without matching those of its allies underscores that markets are being distorted by a series of conflicting influences. 2. The world's largest oil exporter said it would cut output by about 1 million barrels per day in July, although other members of the OPEC+ group decided not to take any further joint action at a meeting in Vienna on Sunday. 3. Saudi Arabia's unilateral production cut in July is tantamount to acquiescing that global oil demand is not as strong as most analysts and the IEA predicted. 4. Saudi Aramco releases official sales prices around the 5th of each month. A survey found that Asian refiners expect crude oil prices for July shipments to be cut by about $1 per barrel compared with benchmark Arabian light oil. 5. Although production cuts are largely a political decision driven by the Ministry of Energy, OSP levels reflect Saudi Aramco's views on actual spot market conditions. 6. The oil market still expects that demand may be slightly weak at present, but will pick up sharply in the second half of this year. Crude supply levels cut for July, further evidence that demand has fallen short of bullish expectations backed by OPEC, IEA and others