Stable TGE countdown! Insider pre-deposits spark controversy, bets placed on FDV surpassing $2 billion

On December 8, the Layer1 blockchain Stable mainnet will be officially launched, and its design core is to use USDT as the native gas fee, enabling sub-second settlement and peer-to-peer transfers without gas fees. Stable’s previous pre-deposit activities broke out in rat warehouse behavior, triggering a crisis of trust. Polymarket data shows that the market is betting on an 85% probability that its FDV will exceed $20 billion on the day after its launch.

Stable TGE Core Mechanism: Disruptive Design of USDT Payments

! STABLE tokenomics

As a Layer 1 blockchain powered by Tether, Stable’s biggest innovation lies in the use of USDT as a native gas fee. This design revolutionizes the economic model of traditional public chains. In traditional public chains like Ethereum and Solana, users must hold native tokens (ETH or SOL) to pay transaction fees, creating a significant threshold for new users. Stable allows users to pay all fees directly with USDT, achieving a truly frictionless experience.

The business logic of this design is extremely clear. As the world’s largest stablecoin issuer, Tether has a USDT market capitalization of over $1200 billion and tens of millions of active users. The inclusion of USDT as the native payment tool of the Stable network means that these users can seamlessly migrate to Stable without the need to purchase additional governance tokens. This user experience advantage may be the biggest competitiveness of Stable compared to other new public chains.

Stable claims to enable sub-second settlements and peer-to-peer transfers with no gas fees. Sub-second settlement means that transaction confirmation times can be between 0.5-1 seconds, much faster than Ethereum’s 12 seconds and Bitcoin’s 10 minutes. No gas fees mean that there are no fees for direct transfers between users, which is very attractive for micropayment scenarios. However, this “no fee” requires a question mark, as network operating costs are always present and may only be covered by other methods such as validator subsidies or protocol revenue.

The total supply of STABLE native tokens is 1000M, and the total supply remains unchanged. Stable network transfers, payments, and transactions are all settled in USDT, and STABLE is not used as a gas fee, but rather as an incentive mechanism between developers and ecosystem participants. This design raises the core question: if STABLE is not used to pay gas fees, where is its value capture mechanism? The answer is staking and governance.

Stable Tokenomics Distribution Structure

Genesis Distribution 10%: Used for liquidity, community activation, ecological activities, and strategic distribution, fully unlocked upon mainnet launch

Ecosystem & Community 40%: Developer grants, liquidity programs, partnerships, community development

Team 25%: Founding team, engineers, researchers, linear unlock after setting a one-year cliff period

Investors & Advisors 25%: Strategic investors and advisors, also released linearly after a one-year CLIFF period

Pre-deposit Controversy: Rat Warehouse and KYC lag Severely Damage Trust

! Stable Pre-Deposit Rat Warehouse

(Source: Dune)

Similar to Plasma, Stable also opened two pre-deposit events before the mainnet launch, but the process was fraught with controversy. The first phase of pre-deposits, launched at the end of October, was capped at $8.25 billion, but was filled within minutes of the announcement. The community questioned the rat warehouse behavior of some players, as the number one wallet deposited hundreds of millions of USDT 23 minutes in advance before opening deposits.

This phenomenon of early deposits has raised widespread doubts. If the system is really open at the time of the announcement, why can someone deposit 23 minutes in advance? This suggests either a technical vulnerability or some insiders have been given advance notice. The project team did not respond directly to this, only launching the second phase of the pre-deposit event on November 6, with a limit of $500 million, in an attempt to quell the controversy with more participation opportunities.

However, the second stage is equally problematic. Stable underestimated the enthusiasm of market deposits, and the huge influx of traffic immediately opened caused its website to slow down. The KYC (identity verification) system is even more disastrous, with review times ranging from a few days to a week, and some users in the community complain that the system is stuck or repeatedly requests supplementary materials. This poor user experience is ironic for a public chain that claims to focus on the payment experience.

The final second stage had a total deposit of about $18M, and the number of participating wallets was about 2.6M. After the Stable updates the rules, users can deposit through the Hourglass frontend or directly on-chain, and the deposit function will be open again for 24 hours, with a maximum deposit of $100 per wallet, and the minimum deposit is still $1,000. The total pre-deposit size reached US$13.25 billion (8.25 million in the first phase + 5 billion in the second phase).

The project team disclosed in the whitepaper that Genesis allocates 10% for pre-stored activity incentives, exchange activity, initial on-chain liquidity, etc. Assuming that Stable eventually airdrops a 3%-7% share to pre-deposits, the corresponding return is approximately 7% to 16.9% based on the pre-market perpetual contract price of $0.032. This means that every $1M deposit corresponds to an airdrop income of $700 to $1690.

The market is betting on 2 billion FDV, but pessimism is crescendo

At the end of July this year, Stable announced the completion of a $28 million seed round of financing, led by Tether’s parent company and Hack VC, with a market valuation of about $300 million. For comparison, the market capitalization of similar projects Plasma is now $3.3 billion, with an FDV of $16.75 billion. Polymarket data shows that the market bets that the probability that the FDV will exceed $20 billion on the day after Stable is launched is 85%, and based on a conservative $20 billion calculation, the STABLE currency price corresponds to $0.02.

However, the CEX perpetual contract market has given more optimistic pricing. STABLE/USDT is currently quoted at $0.032, corresponding to approximately $30 billion in FDV. This discrepancy between the pre-market price and Polymarket’s forecasts reflects a divergent market on Stable’s valuation. Perpetual contract prices are often dominated by speculative sentiment, which can overestimate or underestimate the true value.

Some optimists believe that the stablecoin narrative, the endorsement of Tether’s parent company, and Plasma’s experience of rising and falling may mean that Stable will still have some popularity in the early stages of its launch and room for the currency price to rise. As an established exchange, Tether’s parent company has a deep influence and user base in the crypto circle, and its endorsement adds credibility to Stable. In addition, Plasma briefly surged after TGE, and although it fell back later, it proves that the market is still speculative about the new public chain.

But the pessimism is stronger: Gas is not STABLE payment, token utility is limited, especially the market has entered a correction cycle, liquidity has become tight, and its currency price may fall rapidly. This criticism hits the nail on the head - if STABLE is not used to pay gas fees, its demand mainly comes from staking and governance, but the actual demand for these two use cases is much lower than the gas fee demand. The core reason why Ethereum’s ETH is valuable is that every transaction must consume ETH as a gas fee, creating continuous buying demand. Stable’s abandonment of this design could lead to STABLE becoming a pure speculative target.

As of press time, a number of CEXs have announced the launch of STABLE spot, but the largest crypto exchange in the United States and the Korean exchange have not yet announced their launch plans. The absence of mainstream exchanges is a bad sign, as their listings often bring the most liquidity and user attention. If these top exchanges are on the sidelines, it may suggest that they have doubts about Stable’s long-term prospects.