High percentage of Bitcoin, ETH, SOL held at a loss: Is it a bear market sign?

Recent data from Glassnode showed Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), and Solana (SOL) reflecting record high levels of their supply held at a loss

However, a closer examination of the locked supply, institutional holdings, and staking structures revealed that the effective liquid supply under pressure is significantly lower than the implied percentages, especially for Ether and Solana

Key takeaways:

• A significant portion of Ether and SOL held at a loss is not liquid, with over 40% of ETH and more than 75% of SOL locked in staking, ETFs, or strategic reserves.
• Bitcoin’s at-loss supply appeared high, but institutional holdings and lost BTC supply significantly reduce its true liquid float.

Positions at a loss do not reflect the actual liquid supply

Bitcoin currently has 35% of its supply held at a loss, a level last seen when BTC traded near $27,000. However, even without a staking mechanism, Bitcoin’s liquid supply is far lower than the numbers suggest. The key statistics are outlined below:

• BTC circulating supply: 19,953,406
• BTC held by public/private companies, ETFs, and countries: 3,725,013 BTC
• BTC lost forever (estimates): 3,000,000–3,800,000 BTC. This represents 15.0% to 19.0% of the total circulating supply.

Bitcoin’s percentage of supply in profit is in a sharp decline. Source: GlassnodeCombined, these factors remove roughly 33% of all Bitcoin from liquid circulation. Institutional holdings, particularly ETF treasuries and corporate treasuries, are not sensitive to short-term volatility, as they operate under mandates tied to reserves, long-horizon accumulation, or index tracking. The lost BTC further reduced the supply that can react to loss-driven pressure.

Ether figures required a more nuanced interpretation. While 37% of ETH is currently held at a loss, a substantial portion of the network’s supply is locked or institutionally held:

• ETH circulating supply: 120,695,601
• ETH staked: 35,681,209 ETH (≈29.6%)
• ETH in spot ETFs: 6.26M ETH (≈5.18%)
• ETH in strategic reserves (SER): 6.36M ETH (≈5.26%)

Total ETH staked. Source: CryptoQuantIn total, over 40% of all ETH is effectively locked in staking, ETFs, or long-term institutional reserves. These categories historically do not react to short-term volatility, as institutional products (ETFs, custodial reserves) operate under policies prioritizing long-term accumulation rather than discretionary selling. As a result, the actual liquid ETH supply facing loss-driven pressure is materially smaller than the aforomentioned 37%.

Solana displayed an even sharper divergence. Although 70% of circulating SOL is held at a loss, the network has one of the highest staking ratios among major chains:

• SOL circulating supply: 559,262,268
• SOL staked: 411,395,790.5 SOL (73.6%)
• SOL in ETFs: roughly 1% of circulating supply

Lowest SOL supply in profit in two years. Source: GlassnodeThis meant more than three-quarters of all SOL is locked in validator staking or institutional products, neither of which exhibits rapid selling behaviors. Notably, when SOL fell to $121, the supply held at a loss narrowed to 80%, a level it previously reached when the price was near $20, illustrating the metric’s sensitivity to rapid price repricing rather than structural capitulation.

Interestingly, both ETH and SOL’s supply-at-loss metrics tend to fall sharply during uptrends due to their heavy staking locks, making such spikes more reflective of price velocity than panic positioning.

Overall, across all three assets, the raw loss percentages overstate potential sell pressure. Once locked supply, institutional holdings, and permanently lost coins are accounted for, the true liquid supply at risk is significantly more contained.

Related: Bitcoin data calls $80K the bottom as analysts say BTC bulls are back

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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