"He" may become the next chairman of The Federal Reserve (FED), becoming the hottest candidate to replace Powell.

The US federal funds interest rate market has almost locked in a 25 basis point rate cut this month (with a probability as high as 93.9%), but another longer-term bet is quietly unfolding—who will succeed Powell as the next chair of The Federal Reserve (FED)?

On the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, current Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller leads the pack with a 30% odds, becoming the most popular successor in the eyes of the market.

Why did Waller become the market's "consensus choice"?

1. Atypical background, technically neutral monetary policy officials

Born in a small town in Nebraska, USA, and not from an Ivy League background.

24 years of academic career focused on monetary theory and central bank system research.

Joined the St. Louis Federal Reserve in 2009, nominated to the board by Trump in 2019, and appointed with a narrow vote in 2020.

This atypical resume makes him belong to no Wall Street faction, carrying little political baggage and possessing independent professional judgment.

2. Policy style is flexible and non-ideological

Support for interest rate cuts to prevent recession in 2019.

In 2022, support for rapid interest rate hikes to curb inflation.

Become one of the first directors to vote in favor of interest rate cuts in 2025.

This kind of "data-driven adjustment" style is surprisingly rare in the highly politicized Federal Reserve (FED).

3. Maintain an open attitude towards cryptocurrency and financial technology

Oppose central bank digital currency (CBDC), but support private stablecoins as a tool for payment efficiency.

Repeatedly publicly discussing AI payments, tokenized assets, and smart contracts, advocating that "the government builds the infrastructure, and innovation is left to the market."

What does it mean for the crypto market if Waller takes office?

Stablecoin regulation enters the "institutional certainty period"

Waller supports the establishment of stablecoin regulations through congressional legislation and opposes excessive executive overreach.

Beneficiaries: compliant stablecoin projects such as USDC, DAI, PayPal USD.

Possible changes: Implementing a regulatory framework that promotes "licensing, reserve standardization, and information disclosure standardization."

Major chain assets such as BTC and ETH welcome a "moderate regulatory period"

Although he has not publicly endorsed Bitcoin or Ethereum, Waller has stated that "The Federal Reserve (FED) should not take sides in the market."

This means that there will be no active suppression of non-US dollar systems, as long as the sovereignty of payment and the bottom line of systemic risk are not touched.

For the market, this is a positive sentiment that can enhance risk appetite.

DeFi and developers gain a "dialog window"

Waller is willing to understand and discuss decentralized technology, which is extremely rare among central bank leadership.

Potential Impact: DeFi projects, on-chain payments, and tokenized assets are expected to gain more opportunities for policy communication.

The Dual Game of Politics and Markets

Political aspect: Waller was nominated by Trump, but is not his confidant and has cross-party acceptance.

Market level: His policy predictability is high, making it a "low uncertainty" option for both the capital market and the cryptocurrency market.

On Polymarket, although the probability of "Trump not announcing a successor before the end of the year" remains as high as 41%, Waller's 30% odds have far exceeded those of other competitors.

Conclusion

Whether Waller can become the next chairman of The Federal Reserve (FED) remains to be seen in light of political maneuvering and White House personnel arrangements. However, it is certain that his ascension would mean:

1. The regulatory framework for stablecoins is clearer.

2. The regulatory attitude towards main chain assets is more lenient.

3. DeFi and innovative technologies gain more dialogue space.

For the cryptocurrency market, this may not be an "official endorsement," but it could be the most predictable and communicative regulatory environment.