The Asian market shows a mixed trend, with the Fed's interest rate cut expectations boosting sentiment, and Bitcoin attempting to break through the $112,500 resistance.
The China CSI 300 and Hong Kong stocks experienced a significant pullback, declining by 2.47% and 1.21%, respectively, mainly due to market concerns that policy makers may restrict speculative trading and ease short-selling mechanisms. Meanwhile, the weakening yen and improved corporate earnings expectations propelled the Nikkei 225 to rise by 1.34%, and Australian stocks also gained 0.89% due to strong consumption and export data. The Fed's interest rate cut expectations continue to boost risk assets, while gold saw a slight fall. Multiple U.S. employment and service data releases are imminent, and the market is holding its breath. Bitcoin is attempting to build a base for a rebound, currently testing the key technical resistance at $112,500.
The Chinese stock market is suppressed by policy expectations, and the effect of consumption stimulus is limited.
China's financial regulatory authorities are considering further restrictions on speculative trading and may relax some short-selling restrictions, raising concerns in the market. Despite Beijing recently launching a consumer loan subsidy policy to boost credit and household spending, the CSI 300 still fell by 2.47%, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 1.97%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index also declined by 1.21%. Expectations of policy regulation have suppressed the market's positive response to stimulus policies.
The rest of the Asia-Pacific markets generally rose, boosted by expectations of a Fed rate cut.
Japan's Nikkei 225 index rose 1.34%, with the USD/JPY rising to 148.242. The weak yen helps alleviate the impact of U.S. tariffs and improves corporate profit outlook. Australia's ASX200 increased by 0.89%, with July household consumption growing 5.1% year-on-year, exports rising 3.3% month-on-month, and the trade surplus expanding to 7.31 billion AUD. Market expectations for the Fed to start cutting rates in September continue to drive funds into risk assets, while gold fell 0.83% to $3,530.
Multiple economic data from the U.S. will be released tonight, which may affect the Fed's policy path and market sentiment.
U.S. stock index futures are slightly up, with Nasdaq futures rising by 39 points, and S&P and Dow futures up 8 points and 3 points, respectively. The recently released JOLTs job openings fell to 7.181 million, indicating a cooling labor market. The market will closely watch initial jobless claims, the ADP employment report, and the ISM services PMI. If the data is weak, it may strengthen the market's expectations for multiple rate cuts by the Fed; if employment remains resilient, it may weaken expectations for easing.
From a technical perspective, the Dow's recent resistance is at 45841, the Nasdaq at 23882, and the S&P 500 Index at 6523. If key data falls short of expectations, it may trigger a market repricing of monetary policy.
Bitcoin attempts a Rebound, focus on the breakthrough of the 112,500 resistance level
(Source: TradingView)
Bitcoin is attempting to build a rebound trend, currently rising above $111,200 and the 100-hour moving average, forming a short-term ascending channel. If it can successfully break through the resistance level of $112,500, it may further test $113,450 or even $114,500. Conversely, if it fails to hold that level, it may once again test the support area of $110,000 or even $109,250.
In terms of technical indicators, the hourly MACD maintains a bullish momentum, and the RSI is above 50, indicating that buyers are still in control. The key support levels are at $111,500 and $110,000, while resistance is concentrated in the $112,500–$113,450 range.
Conclusion
The Asian market showed a clear divergence in performance during the day, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks falling due to policy expectation disturbances, while the depreciation of the yen and strong data drove up the Japanese and Australian stock markets. Global market attention is focused on the upcoming U.S. employment and services data, which are likely to determine the Fed's next phase of monetary policy and affect global asset price fluctuations. Although Bitcoin has temporarily rebounded, its sustainability still depends on whether it can effectively break through the resistance at $112,500. Traders need to remain cautious, as market volatility may significantly increase around the release of key data.
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The Asian market shows a mixed trend, with the Fed's interest rate cut expectations boosting sentiment, and Bitcoin attempting to break through the $112,500 resistance.
The China CSI 300 and Hong Kong stocks experienced a significant pullback, declining by 2.47% and 1.21%, respectively, mainly due to market concerns that policy makers may restrict speculative trading and ease short-selling mechanisms. Meanwhile, the weakening yen and improved corporate earnings expectations propelled the Nikkei 225 to rise by 1.34%, and Australian stocks also gained 0.89% due to strong consumption and export data. The Fed's interest rate cut expectations continue to boost risk assets, while gold saw a slight fall. Multiple U.S. employment and service data releases are imminent, and the market is holding its breath. Bitcoin is attempting to build a base for a rebound, currently testing the key technical resistance at $112,500.
The Chinese stock market is suppressed by policy expectations, and the effect of consumption stimulus is limited.
China's financial regulatory authorities are considering further restrictions on speculative trading and may relax some short-selling restrictions, raising concerns in the market. Despite Beijing recently launching a consumer loan subsidy policy to boost credit and household spending, the CSI 300 still fell by 2.47%, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 1.97%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index also declined by 1.21%. Expectations of policy regulation have suppressed the market's positive response to stimulus policies.
The rest of the Asia-Pacific markets generally rose, boosted by expectations of a Fed rate cut.
Japan's Nikkei 225 index rose 1.34%, with the USD/JPY rising to 148.242. The weak yen helps alleviate the impact of U.S. tariffs and improves corporate profit outlook. Australia's ASX200 increased by 0.89%, with July household consumption growing 5.1% year-on-year, exports rising 3.3% month-on-month, and the trade surplus expanding to 7.31 billion AUD. Market expectations for the Fed to start cutting rates in September continue to drive funds into risk assets, while gold fell 0.83% to $3,530.
Multiple economic data from the U.S. will be released tonight, which may affect the Fed's policy path and market sentiment.
U.S. stock index futures are slightly up, with Nasdaq futures rising by 39 points, and S&P and Dow futures up 8 points and 3 points, respectively. The recently released JOLTs job openings fell to 7.181 million, indicating a cooling labor market. The market will closely watch initial jobless claims, the ADP employment report, and the ISM services PMI. If the data is weak, it may strengthen the market's expectations for multiple rate cuts by the Fed; if employment remains resilient, it may weaken expectations for easing.
From a technical perspective, the Dow's recent resistance is at 45841, the Nasdaq at 23882, and the S&P 500 Index at 6523. If key data falls short of expectations, it may trigger a market repricing of monetary policy.
Bitcoin attempts a Rebound, focus on the breakthrough of the 112,500 resistance level
(Source: TradingView)
Bitcoin is attempting to build a rebound trend, currently rising above $111,200 and the 100-hour moving average, forming a short-term ascending channel. If it can successfully break through the resistance level of $112,500, it may further test $113,450 or even $114,500. Conversely, if it fails to hold that level, it may once again test the support area of $110,000 or even $109,250.
In terms of technical indicators, the hourly MACD maintains a bullish momentum, and the RSI is above 50, indicating that buyers are still in control. The key support levels are at $111,500 and $110,000, while resistance is concentrated in the $112,500–$113,450 range.
Conclusion
The Asian market showed a clear divergence in performance during the day, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks falling due to policy expectation disturbances, while the depreciation of the yen and strong data drove up the Japanese and Australian stock markets. Global market attention is focused on the upcoming U.S. employment and services data, which are likely to determine the Fed's next phase of monetary policy and affect global asset price fluctuations. Although Bitcoin has temporarily rebounded, its sustainability still depends on whether it can effectively break through the resistance at $112,500. Traders need to remain cautious, as market volatility may significantly increase around the release of key data.