In the past 10 weeks, the group of stocks known as Bitcoin Treasury Companies (BTCTCs) – that is, publicly listed companies that hold Bitcoin as a core part of their balance sheets – has plummeted sharply by 50–80%. This trend has caused deep concern among investors, as the level of volatility is even harsher than that of Bitcoin itself (BTC).
A prime example is Metaplanet (MTPLF), a company famous for its "Bitcoinization" strategy for assets. Over the course of 18 months, this stock has undergone up to 12 "mini-bear markets" – cyclical downturns, ranging from a one-day drop to several months of decline.
On average, each drop of Metaplanet is -32.4% and lasts about 20 days. The worst drop occurred from 25/7 to 21/11/2024, when the stock lost up to 78.6% of its value in 119 days.
Is Bitcoin the Main Reason?
According to expert analysis by Mark Moss, only 41.7% of the adjustments of Metaplanet coincide with the bearish cycles of Bitcoin. This means that nearly 60% of the causes stem from internal company issues, rather than just from the cryptocurrency market.
Common internal factors include:
The issuance of options or raising capital causes investors to worry about stock dilution. The narrowing of the "Bitcoin premium" - that is, the gap between the stock price and the actual value of the amount of BTC held by the company. Financial management decisions and business strategies are risky.
However, the data also shows a special correlation: the sharpest drops (-78.6% or -54.4%) often coincide with periods of negative volatility of Bitcoin. This proves that when BTC enters a state of high volatility, BTCTC stocks not only drop accordingly but also suffer a double impact, causing the decline to be prolonged and more severe.
BTC: "4 Cycles in 1 Year"
If Bitcoin is often viewed in a 4-year cycle of halving and the accompanying ups and downs, then BTCTCs stocks resemble the compression of 4 cycles into just 1 year. The combination of the influence of BTC prices and internal business variables makes them an extremely sensitive asset, with volatility far exceeding that of Bitcoin.
Mark Moss emphasizes:
"Synchronization is only partial. BTC remains the dominant influencing factor, but it is the new business variables that act as the 'leverage' amplifying the risks."
A Lesson for Investors
Investing in altcoins does not equate to indirectly purchasing Bitcoin. Instead, investors must also accept betting on:
Corporate capital management: Does the company raise capital effectively or cause stock dilution? Financial structure: Debt ratio, how to use BTC as collateral. Business strategy: Does the company have a long-term vision or just follow trends?
Therefore, if Bitcoin is already considered a highly volatile asset, then BTCTC stocks are the "leverage Bitcoin" version, where risks and opportunities are multiplied many times.
👉 In summary: BTCTC stocks not only reflect the price fluctuations of Bitcoin but are also profoundly influenced by internal factors. For investors, holding BTCTCs means understanding both the cryptocurrency market cycle and the business cycle, where every governance decision can quickly amplify volatility to unpredictable levels.
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CTC Stocks: Why Do They Fluctuate Multiple Times More Than Bitcoin?
In the past 10 weeks, the group of stocks known as Bitcoin Treasury Companies (BTCTCs) – that is, publicly listed companies that hold Bitcoin as a core part of their balance sheets – has plummeted sharply by 50–80%. This trend has caused deep concern among investors, as the level of volatility is even harsher than that of Bitcoin itself (BTC). A prime example is Metaplanet (MTPLF), a company famous for its "Bitcoinization" strategy for assets. Over the course of 18 months, this stock has undergone up to 12 "mini-bear markets" – cyclical downturns, ranging from a one-day drop to several months of decline.
On average, each drop of Metaplanet is -32.4% and lasts about 20 days. The worst drop occurred from 25/7 to 21/11/2024, when the stock lost up to 78.6% of its value in 119 days.
Is Bitcoin the Main Reason? According to expert analysis by Mark Moss, only 41.7% of the adjustments of Metaplanet coincide with the bearish cycles of Bitcoin. This means that nearly 60% of the causes stem from internal company issues, rather than just from the cryptocurrency market. Common internal factors include: The issuance of options or raising capital causes investors to worry about stock dilution. The narrowing of the "Bitcoin premium" - that is, the gap between the stock price and the actual value of the amount of BTC held by the company. Financial management decisions and business strategies are risky. However, the data also shows a special correlation: the sharpest drops (-78.6% or -54.4%) often coincide with periods of negative volatility of Bitcoin. This proves that when BTC enters a state of high volatility, BTCTC stocks not only drop accordingly but also suffer a double impact, causing the decline to be prolonged and more severe. BTC: "4 Cycles in 1 Year" If Bitcoin is often viewed in a 4-year cycle of halving and the accompanying ups and downs, then BTCTCs stocks resemble the compression of 4 cycles into just 1 year. The combination of the influence of BTC prices and internal business variables makes them an extremely sensitive asset, with volatility far exceeding that of Bitcoin. Mark Moss emphasizes: "Synchronization is only partial. BTC remains the dominant influencing factor, but it is the new business variables that act as the 'leverage' amplifying the risks." A Lesson for Investors Investing in altcoins does not equate to indirectly purchasing Bitcoin. Instead, investors must also accept betting on: Corporate capital management: Does the company raise capital effectively or cause stock dilution? Financial structure: Debt ratio, how to use BTC as collateral. Business strategy: Does the company have a long-term vision or just follow trends? Therefore, if Bitcoin is already considered a highly volatile asset, then BTCTC stocks are the "leverage Bitcoin" version, where risks and opportunities are multiplied many times. 👉 In summary: BTCTC stocks not only reflect the price fluctuations of Bitcoin but are also profoundly influenced by internal factors. For investors, holding BTCTCs means understanding both the cryptocurrency market cycle and the business cycle, where every governance decision can quickly amplify volatility to unpredictable levels.