Bitcoin has entered September with mixed sentiment — while stats point to a historically bearish month, derivatives traders remain optimistic. Their reasons? Seasonal patterns, macroeconomic triggers, and anticipation of a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Bitcoin Regains Its Footing
After falling 3.3% in August, Bitcoin rebounded about 3% over the past two days, and at the time of writing, it was trading near $111,500. Trading volume rose 7.31% in the last 24 hours to $72.2 billion, signaling renewed market activity.
While this rebound was driven primarily by passive accumulation rather than aggressive buying, open interest in perpetual contracts rose 2.35% to $30 billion in just two days—indicating traders are positioning for upcoming wheel-dealing data.
History Weighs Against Bitcoin
Since 2013, Bitcoin has ended September lower in 8 out of 12 years, with an average drop of 3.8%. This so-called “September effect” is often attributed to profit-taking after summer rallies and portfolio rebalancing before Q4.
Despite the seemingly bleak historical track record, analysts note that a weak August often lays the groundwork for a bullish September. Prominent analyst Rekt Fencer has drawn parallels with 2017 — that year, Bitcoin dipped hard in late August, found strong support, and then skyrocketed to $20,000 during September.
The Fed as a Potential Game-Changer
A powerful catalyst could be the Federal Reserve. Markets currently price in an 89.7% probability of a 25 basis-point rate cut on September 17.
Sean Dawson, Head of Research at Dervie, noted that options traders are targeting September option expirations with strike levels at $120K, $130K, and even $140K—showing notable bullish positioning.
Dawson cautioned, “If the Fed holds the rates steady, September could turn out much more painful than investors expect.”
Volatility Remains Elevated
On-chain data shows 30% implied volatility for BTC this month. The 25-delta options skew moved up to 12 in the last 24 hours, signaling that investors are actively hedging against downside risks.
Adding to the tension, Friday’s release of U.S. non-farm payroll data could steer market direction decisively—either supporting the bullish setup or confirming September’s bearish reputation.
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin, at around $111,500, is rebounding despite August lossesSeptember has historically been bearish for BTC, but this year could follow a different pathA 2017-style recovery scenario remains a valid comparison for manyA Fed rate cut could be the key trigger in driving bullish momentum
📈 September may just prove decisive in defining whether Bitcoin breaks its historical pattern and ignites a fresh rally—or falls into another seasonal correction.
Stay one step ahead – follow our profile and stay informed about everything important in the world of cryptocurrencies!
Notice:
,,The information and views presented in this article are intended solely for educational purposes and should not be taken as investment advice in any situation. The content of these pages should not be regarded as financial, investment, or any other form of advice. We caution that investing in cryptocurrencies can be risky and may lead to financial losses.“
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
Traders Bet on a Bullish September for Bitcoin: Will History and the Fed Decide the Outcome?
Bitcoin has entered September with mixed sentiment — while stats point to a historically bearish month, derivatives traders remain optimistic. Their reasons? Seasonal patterns, macroeconomic triggers, and anticipation of a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Bitcoin Regains Its Footing After falling 3.3% in August, Bitcoin rebounded about 3% over the past two days, and at the time of writing, it was trading near $111,500. Trading volume rose 7.31% in the last 24 hours to $72.2 billion, signaling renewed market activity. While this rebound was driven primarily by passive accumulation rather than aggressive buying, open interest in perpetual contracts rose 2.35% to $30 billion in just two days—indicating traders are positioning for upcoming wheel-dealing data.
History Weighs Against Bitcoin Since 2013, Bitcoin has ended September lower in 8 out of 12 years, with an average drop of 3.8%. This so-called “September effect” is often attributed to profit-taking after summer rallies and portfolio rebalancing before Q4. Despite the seemingly bleak historical track record, analysts note that a weak August often lays the groundwork for a bullish September. Prominent analyst Rekt Fencer has drawn parallels with 2017 — that year, Bitcoin dipped hard in late August, found strong support, and then skyrocketed to $20,000 during September.
The Fed as a Potential Game-Changer A powerful catalyst could be the Federal Reserve. Markets currently price in an 89.7% probability of a 25 basis-point rate cut on September 17. Sean Dawson, Head of Research at Dervie, noted that options traders are targeting September option expirations with strike levels at $120K, $130K, and even $140K—showing notable bullish positioning.
Dawson cautioned, “If the Fed holds the rates steady, September could turn out much more painful than investors expect.”
Volatility Remains Elevated On-chain data shows 30% implied volatility for BTC this month. The 25-delta options skew moved up to 12 in the last 24 hours, signaling that investors are actively hedging against downside risks. Adding to the tension, Friday’s release of U.S. non-farm payroll data could steer market direction decisively—either supporting the bullish setup or confirming September’s bearish reputation.
Key Takeaways Bitcoin, at around $111,500, is rebounding despite August lossesSeptember has historically been bearish for BTC, but this year could follow a different pathA 2017-style recovery scenario remains a valid comparison for manyA Fed rate cut could be the key trigger in driving bullish momentum
📈 September may just prove decisive in defining whether Bitcoin breaks its historical pattern and ignites a fresh rally—or falls into another seasonal correction.
#bitcoin , #BTC , #CryptoNews , #CryptoMarket , #blockchain
Stay one step ahead – follow our profile and stay informed about everything important in the world of cryptocurrencies! Notice: ,,The information and views presented in this article are intended solely for educational purposes and should not be taken as investment advice in any situation. The content of these pages should not be regarded as financial, investment, or any other form of advice. We caution that investing in cryptocurrencies can be risky and may lead to financial losses.“