Can the four-year cycle of Bitcoin be broken?

1. It is originally a financial game; it's just using technology as a pretext, and there is no real decentralization. Dao Ge will never tell you this from the beginning, and Bitcoin can also be rolled back.

I have always believed that the way investors perceive an ecosystem will determine how that ecosystem will return value to the investors.

If you view this ecosystem through the lens of games and gimmicks, it is essentially the same as how gamblers view a casino. The feedback that casinos give to the vast majority of gamblers is to leave them broke and destitute, with only fleeting illusions and a negative descent into escape.

But if we look at this ecosystem from the perspective of exploration and discovery, it is essentially the same as the warriors exploring the new world. Although the new world offers warriors feedback that may include tragedies and even sacrifices, it also brings miracles and wealth that can change the course of human history, leaving behind achievements that are forever recorded in history and a spirit of proactive advancement.

Bitcoin can certainly be rolled back, and rollbacks have occurred in history, especially when Satoshi Nakamoto was still leading Bitcoin development.

These histories and allusions are not mysterious at all, and there is nothing to conceal; you can see it by searching online.

Not only Bitcoin, but Ethereum has also experienced a Rollback.

However, as long as one carefully reads the historical background, decision-making process, and the regrets left behind from those rollbacks that occurred back then, most people can understand everything that happened in that dilemma.

Indeed, some people believe that it goes against decentralization, but more people choose to believe that it is a necessary measure, opting to follow the Bitcoin rollback by Satoshi Nakamoto and the Ethereum rollback by Vitalik.

Moreover, those rollbacks did not destroy the original versions, and investors can still find the Bitcoin version before Satoshi's rollback and the Ethereum version before Vitalik's rollback---ETC. This is also a manifestation of "decentralization": no force can eliminate dissent, and no force can monopolize everything.

We cannot say that because there is no perfect utopia in the world, it is not worth cherishing, ideals are not worth pursuing, and efforts are meaningless. Moreover, in the crypto ecosystem, the significance of effort has already clearly manifested, and the results of those efforts have shown the world the great fruits of Decentralization.

2. According to the logic of carving a boat to seek a sword, it is estimated that by the end of this year, Bitcoin and Ethereum will reach their peak. Coupled with the fact that there has been no innovation in the crypto ecosystem during this market cycle, I judge that the subsequent increase in this bull market for Bitcoin and Ethereum will be very limited. However, during this time, institutions are buying Ethereum in large quantities, which clearly indicates that they believe the price of Ethereum is undervalued. Unless the crypto market breaks away from the four-year bull and bear cycle, if we assess this with percentages, what is the probability of breaking the four-year bull and bear cycle in this market?

Actually, I can't guess what institutions really think in their hearts. I prefer to look at the logic of their statements and their actions. From their words and actions, I tend to believe that they think Ethereum is undervalued.

A few major institutions entering the market to buy Ethereum in this round have their buying costs at least around $3400 to $3500. From a long-term perspective, I believe this price is indeed not high (however, I definitely won't buy at this price level in this cycle. I stopped buying over $2500 in this cycle).

That said, many times institutions have a "split" view on issues. They may not necessarily combine long-term potential with price trends; sometimes they also look for other reasons to engage in various fancy operations.

So if they suddenly change their tune and believe that the price of Ethereum is overvalued, leading them to sell off in large quantities, I wouldn't be surprised.

So I always remain cautious about their words and actions.

But there is one thing I believe: more and more institutions have indeed recognized that Ethereum is the best blockchain platform for carrying a grand ecosystem in the long run.

The reason I believe it is very likely that the four-year cycle will be broken is that I trust this perspective from institutions will influence many teams in traditional sectors, leading to more teams from the traditional financial world entering the crypto ecosystem for entrepreneurship. This will definitely benefit the long-term development of the ecosystem and shorten the time cycle for the ecosystem to erupt again.

But this is just my guess. If I had to say how confident I am, I would say over 50%.