Analysis of Bitcoin big dump risk: Is the bottom at the end of 2026 likely to fall between 60,000 to 80,000 dollars? Key support for the next cycle revealed.

Bitcoin (BTC) has long been considered to follow a price cycle of about four years, alternating between peaks and "crypto winter." However, with the influx of ETF funds, growing institutional demand, and the market gradually maturing, is this cycle changing? Diaman Partners' latest research indicates that even with reduced fluctuation, the key support level for the next cycle is still worth investors' high attention—especially concerning the potential bottom of the next cycle that may occur in 2026.

Bitcoin Cycle: From Historical Peaks to Winter Valleys

In the cycles of 2011, 2014, and 2018, Bitcoin built a bottom above its previous highs, until the FTX collapse in 2022 broke this pattern, with the price once dropping below the 20,000 USD mark to 15,000 USD.

Although some experts believe the four-year cycle has ended and Bitcoin is entering a more stable "mature phase," analysts still warn that the risk of a winter remains, albeit with potentially smaller fluctuations.

Reasons for the ongoing support cycle include:

1. ETF and institutional funds continue to flow in

2. Increased demand from financial institutions and enterprises.

3. US retirement funds can hold BTC

200-week moving average: key indicator of long-term support

(Source: Diaman Partners)

The 200-week moving average (200W MA) is considered an important reference for the long-term bottom of Bitcoin. Apart from the FTX crash in 2022, historically, the price of BTC has received support multiple times at this moving average.

Currently, the 200W MA has risen above $51,000, which means that even with a 60% correction, the actual decline may be milder than expected.

Diaman Partners uses Monte Carlo simulation, based on historical data and fluctuation reduction models, to estimate the possible range of 2 million MA by the end of 2026, and calculates the probability of BTC dropping below specific price levels.

Potential Bottom Scenario in 2026: 60,000 or 80,000 USD?

The simulation results show:

The probability of falling below 41,000 USD is only 5%.

The 5th percentile support level is around $60,000, which implies that the bottom of the next cycle is likely to be higher than the historical winter low.

If BTC surges to $260,000 in 2025 and follows the historical average retracement of about -69%, then the bottom in 2026 could be around $80,000.

Diaman Partners pointed out that if Bitcoin rises strongly in the coming months, the support level at the cycle bottom will be raised accordingly; conversely, if the rise is moderate, the bottom may be close to 60,000 USD.

Conclusion

Regardless of whether the four-year cycle is fading, the long-term support level remains the core basis for investors to formulate risk management strategies. The simulation results from Diaman Partners indicate that even if a "Crypto Assets winter" occurs in the future, the bottom price level of Bitcoin may be far higher than the past lows. For long-term holders, this means that the market is gradually entering an era of higher benchmark prices, but the dramatic fluctuations between peaks and troughs will still be an inherent characteristic of Bitcoin. For more real-time quotes and in-depth analysis, please follow the official Gate platform.