HBAR Price Faces 30% Downside Risk as TVL Slump Deepens Without ETF Support - Crypto Economy

TL;DR:

• Total value locked (TVL) in Hedera has collapsed by more than 50% since September.
• The absence of inflows into HBAR ETFs limits the entry of fresh institutional capital.
• Technical analysis warns of a potential fall toward $0.043 if key supports are broken.

Hedera is another project affected by the recent weakness in the crypto market. Currently, the HBAR price is struggling against constant selling pressure after losing nearly 67% since its highs last September, reflecting a lack of positive catalysts.

The current downtrend is not an isolated event; rather, it is the consequence of deep fundamental issues within the ecosystem. Specifically, the reduction in network liquidity and low institutional demand have created a scenario where rallies are quickly absorbed by sellers.


TVL Collapse and Absence of Institutional Demand

The collapse of the total value locked (TVL) is one of the most concerning factors, as it dropped from $122.5 million to just $56 million in a few months. As a result, the network’s real utility has diminished, indicating that users are withdrawing their funds from decentralized finance protocols.

On the other hand, the lack of institutional interest is evident in the inactivity of HBAR ETFs, which have not recorded significant inflows in the last two weeks. Without this financial support, the asset lacks the volume necessary to break the downward trend that keeps it trapped.

Despite some indicators showing discreet accumulation by large whales, the on-balance volume (OBV) continues to break long-term supports. Therefore, if the asset fails to stay above the $0.076 support zone, the risk of an additional 30% crash becomes an imminent technical possibility.

In summary, Hedera’s recovery strictly depends on a sustained rebound in its on-chain liquidity and the reactivation of demand from exchange-traded funds. Until these factors align, any bounce attempt will likely be fragile and short-lived.