This Thursday (Beijing time), the Federal Reserve will announce its final interest rate decision of the year. Market expectations are very consistent:
According to CME FedWatch data, there is over an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut.
If it happens, this will be the third consecutive rate cut since September, bringing the federal funds rate down to the 3.5%-3.75% range.
For crypto investors accustomed to the narrative of "rate cuts = bullish," this sounds like good news.
But the problem is, when everyone expects a rate cut, the cut itself is no longer a driving factor for the market.
Financial markets are expectation machines. Prices reflect not "what happened," but "what happened relative to expectations."
An 85% probability means the rate cut has already been fully priced in; when it is officially announced early Thursday morning, unless there is a surprise, the market is unlikely to react much.
So what is the real variable?

On Dec. 1 in Val‑d’Oise, France, the father of a Dubai‑based crypto entrepreneur was kidnapped off the street; another entry in Jameson Lopp’s directory of 225‑plus verified physical attacks on digital asset holders.
The database Lopp, the chief security officer at Bitcoin wallet Casa, has