Ethereum Price Prediction: Inverse Cup and Handle Pattern Emerges, ETH Faces 50% Downside Risk

Ethereum (ETH) has rebounded more than 20% since hitting a local low of around $2,620 in early November, surpassing $3,000 again as of December 9. However, both technical patterns and on-chain data are signaling further downside, suggesting that ETH prices may weaken again in the coming months.

From a technical perspective, ETH is currently forming a classic inverse cup-and-handle pattern, which typically signals a deeper correction and gives a mid-term target around $1,500. This pattern began when ETH peaked near $4,100 in August and then pulled back, with the price falling below the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, gradually forming a rounded top. Entering the “handle” phase, ETH has remained within an ascending channel but has repeatedly been resisted at the $3,150 area, struggling to break through in the short term, while the 50-day moving average is also acting as resistance in this range.

If ETH breaks below the channel’s lower boundary, currently around $2,900, it would confirm the continuation of the downtrend and technically validate the inverse cup-and-handle pattern’s $1,500 target. This area also overlaps with a major support zone for Ethereum since the start of 2024, further amplifying risk. Unless the price reclaims the $3,300–$3,450 range, ETH’s overall trend remains tilted to the downside.

(Source: TradingView)

On-chain data also shows increasing risk. On December 5, leading CEXs saw the largest single-day inflow since May 2023, with a net 162,000 ETH transferred to exchanges. CryptoOnChain noted that large inflows typically mean holders may be preparing to sell some assets. Coupled with ETH currently trading below key moving averages, such inflows often signal sharp price volatility or accelerated declines in the short term.

If even a small portion of these transferred ETH are sold at market, it would put significant pressure on the already fragile uptrend channel, likely forcing the price below the critical $2,900 level and once again pointing the decline toward the technical target of $1,500.

Overall, while Ethereum is maintaining a rebound in the short term, both technical patterns and on-chain indicators point to downside risk. In the coming weeks, the $2,900 support will be the key level determining ETH’s trajectory.