#美联储货币政策预期 Analyzing the recent performance and future outlook of the US stock market, I have identified several noteworthy signals. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have pulled back 4-7% from their late October all-time highs but have found support at the 100-day moving average. UBS believes the sell-off is largely over and expects a year-end rebound, projecting that the S&P 500 could rise to around 7000 points by year-end. A Reuters survey shows analysts remain optimistic about the medium to long-term outlook, expecting the S&P 500 to reach 7490 points by 2026.

However, in the short term, risks remain from rising inflation and uncertainties around interest rate cut expectations. 8 out of 14 respondents expect a possible pullback in the next three months. It is recommended to closely monitor the Fed’s monetary policy moves and changes in economic data, pay attention to capital flows in high-momentum sectors such as tech stocks to seize potential trading opportunities, and also to manage risk by setting reasonable stop-loss levels.