12.2

The main reason for yesterday's decline seems to be related to China's continued crackdown on cryptocurrencies and the rising interest rates in Japan. The former is manageable and can be gotten used to, but the latter is the biggest trouble right now, especially since Japan's real interest rates have already risen. Additionally, today, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at weighing the pros and cons of raising interest rates and indicated that they would appropriately increase the policy rate when conditions are right.

The Japanese yen has long served as the world's largest low-interest financing pool, providing invisible liquidity for U.S. tech stocks, AI assets, $BTC , and other risk assets. When Japan enters a rate hike cycle, it means that the cost of financing will increase, forcing cross-border institutions, quantitative funds, and risk parity strategies that originally relied on yen carry trades to deleverage. The narrowing of the U.S.-Japan interest rate differential may lead to capital flowing back from the U.S. to Japan, potentially shrinking the valuation premium of U.S. assets.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut can offset some of the negative impact of the yen's interest rate hike. When Japan's medium- to long-term yields rise rapidly and the global carry trade structure is forced to contract, the pressure on the entire system focuses on the two aspects of "interest rate spreads being compressed" and "financing being withdrawn," while the Fed's interest rate cut can provide a buffer at these two points.

BTC
From an overall perspective, the bearish sentiment remains strong. In terms of the strength of the rebound, liquidity still has not caught up. However, after a long period of decline at this position, there has not yet been a downward rebound. Currently, it is important to pay attention to the weekly support range between 78500 and 84500. From a daily standpoint, as long as the position does not break 84000, it will gradually oscillate to the right, then make a small rebound, and achieve coordination between indicators and the main chart. Therefore, to summarize, the upward momentum at this position will not be very strong. It is likely to consolidate or test support again downwards, with support at 84700-81400 and resistance at 87900-89200-90000.

ETH
Ethereum has once again reached the range we previously mentioned, between 2600 and 2800. The turning point of this market will depend on whether this range can provide support. Personally, I believe as long as this position holds, we can gradually accumulate some assets, and then wait for a right-side oscillation rebound. Its current trend is similar to Bitcoin's, and the daily level also needs to oscillate to the right side. Therefore, in summary, this position should be monitored for a potential phase bottom, with support at 2766-2630 and resistance at 2880-2990.