#数字货币市场回升 The interest rate cut window in February is approaching, what is the market waiting for?

The signals of a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy are becoming increasingly clear. When the risk-free interest rate begins to loosen, capital will inevitably seek new havens. This time, crypto assets may become that reservoir.

Let's talk about Bitcoin first. The combination of halving cycles and expectations of easing has occurred several times in history, and you have seen the results. The current on-chain data is quite interesting: long-term holding addresses are continuously accumulating, and the BTC balances on major exchanges have dropped to multi-year lows. Supply is contracting, while potential demand is brewing.

The narrative of digital gold is particularly effective during a rate-cutting cycle. As the yields of traditional safe-haven assets decline, the allocation logic will naturally tilt towards scarce assets. The previous high? It may just be a temporary stop.

Looking at Ethereum again. After the Cancun upgrade lowered Gas fees, the cost of using ecological applications has significantly improved. More importantly, if interest rate cuts lead to an expanded yield advantage for DeFi protocols, the demand for ETH as an underlying asset will be reactivated. Don't forget that the spot ETF card hasn't been fully played yet; once there are new actions at the policy level, the explosive potential may be even greater than that of $BTC.

On-chain activity data is also showing signs of recovery - address activity, transaction volume, and smart contract call volume; these leading indicators are quietly on the rise.

But stay calm. There is still a barrier of market sentiment between macro expectations and actual implementation. The real upward trend often arises during the stage when the majority are still waiting and not when everyone is shouting to charge.

Can spot positions be held? This may be the most important question in the coming months. There will be short-term fluctuations, but the direction may no longer be up for debate.

BTC0.17%

ETH-1.46%

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WealthCoffee

· 11-30 13:40

Long-term holding addresses are accumulating, and the exchange balances have fallen to a low point; many people haven't noticed this detail. --- Being able to hold Spot is what truly matters; everything else is just fluff, well said. --- As for the interest rate cut expectations, it feels like it's been hyped too much; the real opportunities are actually in places that no one is paying attention to. --- The ETH Spot ETF card indeed hasn't been played yet; if it's released, it might really To da moon. --- Every time they say the macro expectations are good, there should be a rush, but in the end, the emotional barrier is the hardest to overcome. --- The story of digital gold is easy to tell during a rate cut cycle; it really resonates. --- Supply contraction and demand brewing sound great, but can the market sentiment really get through that barrier? --- On-chain data warming up means little; the key is still when the retail investors are willing to enter the market. --- After the Cancun upgrade reduced gas fees, ecological applications have indeed shown signs of improvement; this is no exaggeration. --- The main rise is born when no one is shouting; this statement hits home, as most people are going against it.

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ChainSauceMaster

· 11-30 13:37

The long-term holding address is accumulating, while the coins on the exchange are running. This signal is indeed amazing.

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GasFeeBarbecue

· 11-30 13:33

The long-term holding Address is hoarding, the exchange is dumping, this wave is really different ah --- Waiting for December, anyway, I dare not act now, afraid that going all in will be followed by a black swan --- If the ETF card is really played out, ETH might run even more fiercely than BTC --- I can't hold Spot, I want to sell as soon as it rises, and I want to buy the dip as soon as it falls, my mentality has long collapsed --- The expectation of interest rate cuts sounds good, but the real landing is still far away, don't get played for suckers --- Gas fees have indeed become much cheaper after the Cancun upgrade, and the appetite for DeFi protocols has grown --- Will history repeat itself? Let's just say this time is different, anyway, it can't change the big trend --- The macro expectations are well laid out, just don't know when it will really get dumped --- The main rise was born in the observation stage, and now there are only selling voices, indicating that we are still early --- Can you hold Spot? That's a good question, I really can't hold it.

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FUD_Vaccinated

· 11-30 13:27

I’m not particularly optimistic about short-term speculation on interest rate cut expectations; I’ve heard the historical repetition argument too many times. The key still lies in the data on BTC outflows from the exchange, which is indeed quite significant.

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HashRateHermit

· 11-30 13:20

Supply contraction and demand brewing, this rhythm is indeed correct. It all depends on how the Fed operates in December. Long-term addresses are hoarding, the exchange BTC has hit the bottom, and it feels like the previous high might really just be a relay. After the gas fees from the Cancun upgrade, the spot ETF on eth hasn't made a strong move yet... Once actions are implemented, the breaking force might be even stronger than BTC. Those who are watching are the participants in the main rise, and when everyone shouts to charge, it often means the peak is reached. This is heart-wrenching. Holding spot is more important than anything else, and the outcome will be clear in a month or two.

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FlyingLeek

· 11-30 13:15

Long-term holding addresses are accumulating, and the exchange balance has hit a low point... I've heard this logic too many times, every time saying it's going to take off, but I'm still that sucker. Can I really hold the Spot? To be honest, I'm a bit anxious. With the interest rate cut window coming, funds do need a place to go, but will it just be another old trick of institutions accumulating while retail investors catch a falling knife... I don't know whether to believe it or run away. ETH is a bit interesting this wave; the Gas fees have come down and there are indeed some thoughts, but the key still depends on whether the policy side will really point shave. Instead of waiting for the main rise, it's better to think about how to survive when it falls; that's the real way. Previous high school relay station? Uh... the last time I said that, I lost two months' salary. Supply contraction and demand brewing sounds quite right, but if it really wants to rise, someone needs to take orders. Macroeconomic expectations and market sentiment, these invisible and intangible things, still can't compare to the numbers in the account. If this interest rate cut really comes, I need to think carefully about how to enter a position and not miss out again.

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