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🔥Central Bank Decision Week Arrives: Global Liquidity Landscape May See Major Reversal

This week is arguably the most crucial time window before year-end. The Federal Reserve meeting is imminent, with an 88% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, but the real market expectation may point in another direction—restarting asset purchases. Some analysts predict that Powell is likely to announce in January an adjustment of monthly asset purchases to $45 billion, marking the official end of quantitative tightening and the restart of large-scale balance sheet expansion. In other words, the "liquidity injection" engine is being ignited.

It's not just the Fed making moves. Major banks like Bank of America and UBS are sending similar signals, and officials at the New York Fed have hinted at pressures on reserves, with repo market rates briefly exceeding the expected upper limit. These signs together point to a reality: liquidity conditions are teetering at a critical point.

Across the Pacific, the Bank of Japan presents a different picture. Governor Kazuo Ueda's recent remarks have been hawkish, and the market now expects a 90% chance of a rate hike. If the BOJ does act, with Japanese bond yields already at a 17-year high, it could trigger a chain reaction of unwinding carry trades, impacting global bond and equity markets.

In summary, there are two core questions: Is the Fed's move just a mild adjustment, or the start of a new round of quantitative easing? Will a rate hike in Japan become the straw that breaks the camel's back? Wednesday's decisions will provide the answers, and the market is poised for action.